In this conversation, former Steelers running back Jerome Bettis and host Colin Cowherd delve into the strategic implications of coaching changes in the NFL, particularly focusing on the Pittsburgh Steelers' post-Mike Tomlin era. The core thesis is that conventional wisdom in team building--prioritizing immediate wins and avoiding "stinking"--often leads to a stagnant offense and a failure to secure elite quarterback talent. The discussion reveals hidden consequences such as the compounding effect of technical debt in offensive schemes, the difficulty of attracting top-tier coaching talent to organizations unwilling to undergo painful, short-term rebuilding, and the systemic shift towards a quarterback-centric league where neglecting this position guarantees long-term mediocrity. This analysis is crucial for NFL owners, general managers, and dedicated fans who seek to understand the deeper systems at play beyond surface-level win-loss records, offering an advantage in predicting team trajectories and identifying truly sustainable success.

The Uncomfortable Truth: Why "Not Stinking" Might Be the Steelers' Biggest Downfall

In the hyper-competitive landscape of the NFL, the desire to avoid losing seasons and maintain a veneer of consistent competence is understandable. However, as former Steelers legend Jerome Bettis and host Colin Cowherd explore in a recent conversation, this very aversion to "stinking" might be the invisible force holding organizations like the Pittsburgh Steelers back from true, sustainable success. The immediate gratification of a .500 record, while seemingly responsible, often masks a deeper systemic issue: a failure to invest in the most critical position in modern football -- the quarterback -- and an unwillingness to embrace the uncomfortable, yet necessary, process of a significant rebuild. This discussion peels back the layers of conventional wisdom, revealing how prioritizing short-term comfort can lead to long-term competitive disadvantage, particularly in a league that increasingly rewards bold, albeit painful, strategic decisions.

The Hidden Cost of Avoiding the Abyss

The Pittsburgh Steelers, under Mike Tomlin, built a remarkable reputation for never having a losing season. This consistency is a testament to the coaching staff's ability to maximize talent and foster a resilient culture. However, Bettis and Cowherd argue that this very success has created a paradox. In a league where teams like the Chicago Bears and Arizona Cardinals have strategically "stunk" themselves into position to draft franchise quarterbacks like Caleb Williams and Marvin Harrison Jr., the Steelers' consistent mediocrity leaves them in a perpetual state of "almost."

"The Patriots got Drake Maye, they were awful," Cowherd observes, highlighting the trade-off. "The Bears got Caleb because they were awful." This points to a fundamental system dynamic: elite quarterback talent, the engine of modern NFL success, is often acquired through the painful process of bottoming out. Bettis acknowledges the difficulty of this concept for "Steeler Nation," a fanbase accustomed to competitiveness. "I don't think you can sell that," Bettis states, referring to the idea of intentionally losing for a year. "Coach Tomlin created a situation where they see, 'Well, we can rebuild and at least be five-and-500.'" This creates a feedback loop where incremental improvement, rather than transformative change, becomes the organizational norm.

The consequence of this approach is a team that can make the playoffs but is unlikely to win them. Bettis explains, "You can make it to the playoffs, but you're going to lose in the first round because quarterback play is pivotal in the playoffs." This is the downstream effect of prioritizing not losing over aggressively pursuing a franchise-altering quarterback. The immediate benefit of avoiding a losing season--fan morale, job security--is overshadowed by the long-term cost of being perpetually outmatched at the most crucial position.

When the System Routes Around Your Strengths

The conversation then shifts to the evolving nature of offensive philosophy in the NFL. Bettis, drawing from his playing days, notes the stark contrast between the run-heavy, defense-first approach of the past and the current aerial-attack league. "The philosophy of when I was playing that you run the ball and you know you play great defense--that has totally changed," he says. "Now you've got to put points on the board, and that's the problem that the Steelers are having."

This strategic lag creates a system where the Steelers' traditional strengths--tough defense and a solid running game--are insufficient to compete. The downstream effect is an offense that struggles to keep pace, leading to a predictable outcome: losing football games. The immediate problem is a lack of scoring, but the hidden consequence is a fundamental disconnect between the team's philosophy and the league's evolving demands.

The discussion touches upon potential coaching hires, with names like Harbaugh and Stefanski being bandied about. Bettis, however, emphasizes that even a top coach faces an insurmountable challenge without a capable quarterback. "If you do not have your quarterback, you have absolutely nothing," he asserts. This highlights how the system prioritizes quarterback play above all else. A coach's legacy, as Bettis notes regarding a potential move to Pittsburgh, will be defined by their ability to solve the quarterback puzzle. The failure to address this systematically, year after year, means that even a talented coach might be set up for failure, or at least, for a prolonged period of mediocrity.

The Unpopular Advantage of Embracing Discomfort

The idea of intentionally "stinking" for a year to acquire a top quarterback is presented as an unpopular but potentially durable strategy. Emmanuel Sanders, a former player who played under Tomlin, Sean Payton, and Kyle Shanahan, offers a unique perspective on the impact of coaching and systems. Sanders recounts how Tomlin, beyond football, instilled financial discipline, demonstrating a coach's ability to shape a player's long-term future. This speaks to the deeper impact a coach can have beyond game strategy.

However, Sanders also emphasizes the transformative power of offensive systems. He contrasts coaches who "play checkers" with those who "play chess," like Sean Payton and Kyle Shanahan. "Coaches make players; players don't make coaches," Sanders states, illustrating how a brilliant offensive mind can elevate a quarterback's performance. This is the delayed payoff that conventional wisdom often overlooks. Teams that invest in elite offensive minds and systems, even if it means enduring a period of transition or perceived weakness, ultimately create a more potent and adaptable offense.

The conversation around Ty Simpson, the Alabama quarterback who reportedly turned down significant NIL offers, further underscores this point. While the NIL deals represent immediate financial gain, the decision to stay at Alabama and potentially develop under a strong system, or to wait for a better draft landing spot, speaks to a longer-term perspective. Cowherd questions the notion that Simpson is a "late first-round guy" if teams are offering such substantial sums, suggesting a potential mismatch between draft projections and perceived NFL readiness. The implication is that even a talented quarterback needs the right system and opportunity to succeed, a lesson learned from players like Bo Nix, who found success with Sean Payton in Denver. The advantage, then, lies with teams that can offer not just a quarterback but a system that maximizes his potential, a strategy that requires patience and a willingness to look beyond the immediate draft class.

The Systemic Imperative: Quarterback or Bust

The narrative consistently returns to the quarterback position as the linchpin of NFL success. Bettis and Cowherd dissect the Steelers' predicament: they have draft capital, but their aversion to a full rebuild makes acquiring a top-tier quarterback a distant prospect. The system has, in essence, routed around their ability to secure that critical piece.

The discussion about potential coaching hires like Kevin Stefanski further illuminates this. While Stefanski is praised for his offensive acumen and understanding of the game, his success is inextricably linked to his ability to find and develop a quarterback. The idea of him moving from the "chaos of Cleveland" to the "stability of Baltimore or Pittsburgh" is appealing, but the fundamental question remains: can he solve the quarterback issue?

The conversation highlights how teams that are willing to make difficult decisions--whether it's firing a coach who has achieved consistent mediocrity or embracing a season of losses to secure a generational talent--are the ones who ultimately reap the rewards. The immediate discomfort of "stinking" is precisely what creates the separation from teams that remain perpetually in the middle. This is where competitive advantage is forged: in the willingness to endure short-term pain for long-term gain, a strategy that requires a deep understanding of the NFL's systemic dynamics and a courage that transcends conventional thinking.

Key Action Items

• Commit to a Quarterback-Centric Strategy: Organizations must unequivocally prioritize securing and developing an elite quarterback. This means being willing to make significant investments, including draft capital and potentially enduring a "down year" to acquire one. (Immediate to 1-2 years)
• Embrace Strategic Rebuilding: For teams stuck in mediocrity, a period of intentional rebuilding, even if uncomfortable for fans, is often necessary to acquire top-tier talent and reshape the roster. This requires strong leadership willing to absorb short-term criticism. (1-2 years)
• Prioritize Offensive System Innovation: Coaches and front offices need to continuously adapt offensive schemes to the modern NFL, which increasingly favors passing attacks and innovative play-calling. Relying solely on traditional strengths will lead to obsolescence. (Ongoing)
• Develop a Robust Coaching Succession Plan: Teams should identify and cultivate potential coaching talent, but also be prepared to make decisive hires when opportunities arise, rather than waiting indefinitely for a single candidate. Having backup plans is crucial. (Immediate)
• Invest in Coaching Development Beyond X's and O's: As exemplified by Emmanuel Sanders' experience with Mike Tomlin, coaches can have a profound impact on players' long-term development, including financial literacy and mindset. Fostering this holistic growth can create loyal and successful players. (Ongoing)
• Recognize the Leverage of Elite Coaching Candidates: Coaches like John Harbaugh possess significant leverage. Teams must be prepared to act decisively and present compelling opportunities to secure their services, understanding that delays can lead to missed opportunities. (Immediate)
• Understand the Long-Term Value of Systemic Fit: A talented player or coach can flourish or flounder depending on the system they are placed in. Organizations should focus on creating environments where talent can thrive, even if it requires patience for the payoff. (1-3 years)