Fantasy Football Awards: Player Performances and Preseason Prediction Debates - Episode Hero Image

Fantasy Football Awards: Player Performances and Preseason Prediction Debates

The Herd with Colin Cowherd · · Listen to Original Episode →
Original Title:

TL;DR

  • Christian McCaffrey's exceptional scoring (65 more points than JSN in half PPR) solidified his Fantasy MVP status, demonstrating sustained elite performance despite injury concerns.
  • Jaxon Smith-Njigba's breakout season, leading receivers in points per game through week 15, highlights his emergence as a top-tier fantasy asset.
  • Bijan Robinson's dominant playoff performance, scoring 25+ points in three consecutive games, showcased his championship-carrying potential for fantasy owners.
  • Drake May's third-highest scoring fantasy season behind only Allen and McCaffrey established him as the clear Breakout Player of the Year.
  • Tetairoa McMillan's consistent production as WR13 overall for the entire season, despite a weak quarterback situation, underscores his Rookie of the Year impact.
  • Michael Wilson's emergence as a WR2-level producer in the second half of the season, averaging 19.5 points per game, made him a premier Waiver Wire Hero.
  • Wan'Dale Robinson's late-round draft value and consistent WR13 finish provided significant roster leverage, earning him Sleeper of the Year recognition.
  • Brian Thomas Jr.'s high draft cost and WR43 finish made him the most significant Bust of the Year, failing to meet expectations.
  • Saquon Barkley's RB14 finish after a 400-carry season validated historical data predicting a performance drop-off for high-volume backs.
  • The "RBs Are Dead" award recipients, including McCaffrey and Taylor, demonstrated that elite running backs, when healthy and properly drafted, still provide significant value.
  • Trey Benson, Jayden Daniels, and Garrett Wilson are designated Roster Cloggers for occupying valuable roster spots due to inconsistent availability and performance.
  • Javonte Williams, despite low preseason hype, earned the "No One Believed in Me" award for his strong performance on a good offense.
  • Anthony Richardson's QB6 projection, despite injury uncertainty, represented a bold "I Told You So" take based on offensive scheme potential.

Deep Dive

The 2025 fantasy football season awards show highlights significant player performances and revisits preseason predictions, revealing the subjective nature of "value" and the impact of unforeseen circumstances. While statistical achievements often drive award recognition, the discussions reveal a tension between raw point production, draft position value, and the narrative of overcoming adversity. This analysis underscores how fantasy football awards, much like real-world sports accolades, are influenced by both objective performance and the collective interpretation of what constitutes a successful season.

The Fantasy MVP discussion centered on Christian McCaffrey (CMC) and Jaxon Smith-Njigba (JSN). While CMC's sheer point production and points-per-game average were undeniable, JSN's emergence from relative obscurity and consistent high-level performance, particularly in the crucial weeks 1-15, made him a compelling alternative. This debate illustrates that "MVP" can be interpreted as the player who provided the most overall value (CMC) or the player who outperformed expectations and draft cost the most significantly (JSN). The Playoff MVP award, however, saw a clearer consensus on Bijan Robinson, whose late-season surge provided championship-winning production for fantasy managers. This shift underscores how timely performance, rather than season-long accumulation, can be paramount in playoff scenarios.

Breakout and Rookie of the Year awards highlighted players who transcended their preseason expectations. Drake May was the near-unanimous choice for Breakout Player of the Year, demonstrating elite fantasy production that defied his draft position and even questions about his availability. Tetairoa McMillan secured Rookie of the Year, not only for his statistical output but also for his consistent week-to-week performance from the outset, outperforming fellow rookies who experienced later surges or were hampered by touch limitations. These awards emphasize the importance of sustained impact and exceeding initial projections. The Waiver Wire Hero award, debated between Michael Wilson and Matthew Stafford, showcased how players who provide significant upside from a late-round or waiver pick can be invaluable. Stafford's comeback narrative and elite production made him a strong contender, but Wilson's consistent WR2-level output from a waiver claim ultimately secured the award, highlighting value acquisition over reclamation projects.

The "Bust of the Year" category revealed the high-stakes nature of early-round picks, with Brian Thomas Jr. and Justin Jefferson being prominent nominees. While Jefferson's perceived underperformance was amplified by his elite draft position, Brian Thomas Jr. faced criticism for failing to meet expectations despite a perceived lack of competition. This distinction highlights how draft capital and narrative can influence perceptions of failure. The "I Told You So" and "Running Backs Are Dead" awards, championed by Joe Pisapia and Welsh respectively, underscored the predictive power of historical data, particularly concerning the workload of running backs. Saquon Barkley's RB14 finish after a high-carry season served as validation for the "I Told You So" award, demonstrating that past trends can reliably predict future outcomes, even for elite talent. The "Roster Clogger of the Year" award highlighted players whose injury status or inconsistent performance kept them on rosters without providing meaningful production, illustrating the opportunity cost of holding onto underperforming assets.

Finally, the "Hot Takes" segment reviewed preseason predictions, illustrating the inherent difficulty in forecasting player performance. While some takes, like Tucker Kraft finishing as a top-four tight end, were validated by strong performance (despite injury), others, such as Elijah Moore finishing as a WR1 or Anthony Richardson as QB6, fell significantly short. This segment underscored that even well-reasoned predictions can be derailed by injuries, unexpected team dynamics, or simply the volatile nature of player performance. The segment also demonstrated how the "process" behind a take, even if the outcome was incorrect, could still hold some merit, particularly when injuries played a significant role.

Action Items

  • Audit hot take methodology: Analyze 3-5 past hot takes for common predictors of success or failure (e.g., player position, team context, draft capital).
  • Create a "hot take evaluation framework": Define 3-4 criteria (e.g., statistical plausibility, historical precedent, player upside) to score future hot takes.
  • Track 5-10 "sleeper" player outcomes: Monitor performance against pre-season expectations to identify trends in undervalued assets.
  • Measure correlation between draft position and actual performance: For 3-5 player archetypes, calculate the relationship between draft capital and end-of-season fantasy rank.

Related Episodes

Key Quotes

"I'll use, I'll use Erickson's line here. If you're going to be a product of the sheets and the stats, it's Bijan Robinson. If you're looking at week 15 through 17 in half PPR, the number one non-quarterback score and the number one, the number three overall player, all quarterbacks included, was Bijan Robinson. Bijan scored 25 or more points in each of those three games. Like Puka Nacua had maybe one of the loudest, he had that like crazy loud, ridiculous game that probably just vaulted people, but Bijan owned the playoffs."

Welsh argues that Bijan Robinson was the most valuable player during the fantasy football playoffs based on statistical performance. He highlights Robinson's consistent high-point games during weeks 15-17, positioning him as a critical asset for teams competing for championships.

"Drake May, no debate. I will hear no other argument for any other player besides Drake May. Third highest scoring player in fantasy football behind only Josh Allen and Christian McCaffrey in half PPR scoring. He was a player that anybody could have drafted, could have had Drake May on every single one of your fantasy football teams where he was being drafted. He is the no doubt breakout player for me."

Andrew Erickson asserts that Drake May is the undisputed breakout player of the year. Erickson supports this claim by noting May's high fantasy scoring output, ranking him third overall, and emphasizing his accessibility through drafts, making him a valuable asset for many fantasy teams.

"I'll be different. I'll say TreVeyon Henderson, and it's not his fault he didn't get the ball for half the year. He still averaged more points per game than all these guys. So I think it's got to be TreVeyon. You know, he was, he was factoring special teams before this as well. We're talking about fantasy. It's a little closer as well, but you can pick any of these guys. They are all very good. Their numbers are all very similar in terms of points per game, but TreVeyon Henderson did it on fewer touches than the other guys. So give me TreVeyon."

Scott Bogman selects TreVeyon Henderson as his Rookie of the Year, despite Henderson's limited touches. Bogman justifies this by stating Henderson averaged more points per game than other candidates and achieved this with fewer opportunities, indicating his efficiency and potential.

"I mean, this one is absolutely not close. It is Michael Wilson in a landslide. The only reason Matthew Stafford was a waiver wire guy is because he had the back thing going into the season. I think if he hadn't had that, I think people would have been way more high on him. Rico had a great year, you know, taking that job away from Chuba, definitely worthy of being a nominee here. But it's Michael Wilson in a landslide here for me. Guy had over a thousand yards. Dude never stayed healthy at Stanford. So to see him stay healthy with the Cardinals and be as productive on a week-to-week basis, specifically when you have Trey McBride, you have Marvin Harrison there as well. You have other big targets for him to be one of the better targets on that team, one of the better players on that team, was very impressive. So Michael Wilson for me."

Scott Bogman declares Michael Wilson as the clear Waiver Wire Hero. Bogman emphasizes Wilson's impressive season, including over a thousand receiving yards, and highlights his ability to stay healthy and be productive for the Cardinals, especially considering his injury history at Stanford.

"Oh, I think like what was the award, the Drake May? I think we can name this award the Brian Thomas Jr. Award. The inaugural Brian Thomas Jr. I think Brian Thomas is hands down the biggest bust. I think Justin Jefferson feels it because it was so high, but I don't think that was also because of him. Lad McConkey was a dis, Brian Thomas was a disappointment at every step of the season with that high cost. I don't even think it's close. It is Brian Thomas. They all stunk, unfortunately, but this is the Brian Thomas Award moving forward. He ended up at wide receiver 43 at the end of days, so it's pretty far down there. Drafting him felt like the end of days too."

Welsh names Brian Thomas Jr. as the biggest bust of the year, arguing that his disappointment was consistent throughout the season despite a high draft cost. Welsh contrasts this with other disappointing players, suggesting Thomas's performance was a significant letdown at every stage.

"My, my favorite part of this, Joe, is that Saquon Barkley is almost as tall as you sitting on the side. I mean, what is happening? Where are your legs, dude? Why am I representing the Lollipop Guild? I was standing behind him like standing over him. I thought you were on your knees. I thought you were on your knees. No, I thought I was just standing over him and there was a perspective until I saw the sneaker. Oh my God, I, you can see the moment where is your waist in this? You can see the moment that I realized that your feet were at where kneecaps should be. That is, I want that on a shirt. We have to have that on a shirt. I also would like to say, I always screws me over that stupid picture that you made of me in the baseball season where you look really funny and adorable and I look like a monster from the lagoon. Joe goes, I told you so. I, I'm going to tell you, I also won an award for the, if I could have predicted what Joe P's award title was going to be, this is the most, the "I Told You So" is the most Joe P thing of all time. It's a burden. Joe's burdens is he's not burdened with glorious purpose. It's a burden too to have to bear this and then have people tell you over and over again, no, you're wrong, you're wrong, you're wrong. Okay, I'm not wrong. I did the homework. I did the math. It's all there for you. I laid it out. Even did a funny video in case you don't like reading. What are you going to do? Put it in the black book. Special note in the black book. People still ignored me."

This quote reflects a humorous exchange about an "I Told You So" award, highlighting the speaker's frustration with others ignoring their well-researched predictions, particularly regarding Saquon Barkley's performance after a high-carry season. The speaker emphasizes their reliance on historical data and mathematical analysis, even creating visual aids to support their claims, yet notes that their insights were frequently disregarded.

Resources

External Resources

Books

  • "The Black Book" - Mentioned as a place where the host keeps notes.

Articles & Papers

  • "FantasyPros Sleeper List" - Referenced for identifying potential sleeper players.

People

  • Tyler - Helped create a video about running backs with 400 carries.
  • Fitz - Mentioned as someone who disliked Jaden Blue and was hesitant about Wandale Robinson.
  • Jake Seely - Mentioned as someone who was very high on JSN.
  • Pat Fitz - Mentioned as being higher on Kyle Pitts than Fitz.
  • J. Mac - Mentioned in relation to Kyle Pitts' performance.
  • James Conner - Mentioned as a player whose injury was expected to benefit Trey Benson.
  • Zonovan Knight - Mentioned as a player in the Cardinals' backfield.
  • Michael Carter - Mentioned as a player in the Cardinals' backfield.
  • Amari Demarco - Mentioned as a player in the Cardinals' backfield.
  • Aaron Glenn - Mentioned as someone who "lied" about Garrett Wilson's return.
  • Quentin Johnston - Mentioned as a player who received receptions.
  • Ronde Gaston - Mentioned as a player who received receptions.
  • Keenan Allen - Mentioned as a player who received receptions.
  • Trey Hendrickson - Mentioned as a player who received some involvement.
  • Jaden Blue - Mentioned as a player who was hyped, and someone Fitz disliked.
  • Aaron Rodgers - Mentioned in comparison to Fitz's dislike of Jaden Blue.
  • Javonta Williams - Mentioned as a player who had an excellent year and was drafted by the host.
  • Mike Vrabel - Mentioned as being "hardo on rookies."
  • James Daniels - Mentioned as a roster clogger.
  • Garrett Wilson - Mentioned as a roster clogger and a player who led the Jets in receiving yards despite limited catches.
  • Parker Washington - Mentioned as a player the Bills were throwing to.
  • Brenton Strange - Mentioned as a player the Bills were throwing to.
  • Jacobbi Myers - Mentioned as a player the Bills traded for and extended.
  • Travis Hunter - Mentioned as competition for Trey Benson and a player who went down with injury.
  • Trey Benson - Mentioned as a roster clogger and a player whose process was discussed.
  • James Conner - Mentioned as a player whose injury was expected to benefit Trey Benson.
  • Zonovan Knight - Mentioned as a player in the Cardinals' backfield.
  • Michael Carter - Mentioned as a player in the Cardinals' backfield.
  • Amari Demarco - Mentioned as a player in the Cardinals' backfield.
  • Garrett Wilson - Mentioned as a roster clogger and a player who led the Jets in receiving yards despite limited catches.
  • Aaron Glenn - Mentioned as someone who "lied" about Garrett Wilson's return.
  • Quentin Johnston - Mentioned as a player who received receptions.
  • Ronde Gaston - Mentioned as a player who received receptions.
  • Keenan Allen - Mentioned as a player who received receptions.
  • Trey Hendrickson - Mentioned as a player who received some involvement.
  • Jaden Blue - Mentioned as a player who was hyped, and someone Fitz disliked.
  • Aaron Rodgers - Mentioned in comparison to Fitz's dislike of Jaden Blue.
  • Javonta Williams - Mentioned as a player who had an excellent year and was drafted by the host.
  • Mike Vrabel - Mentioned as being "hardo on rookies."
  • James Conner - Mentioned as a player whose injury was expected to benefit Trey Benson.
  • Zonovan Knight - Mentioned as a player in the Cardinals' backfield.
  • Michael Carter - Mentioned as a player in the Cardinals' backfield.
  • Amari Demarco - Mentioned as a player in the Cardinals' backfield.
  • Garrett Wilson - Mentioned as a roster clogger and a player who led the Jets in receiving yards despite limited catches.
  • Aaron Glenn - Mentioned as someone who "lied" about Garrett Wilson's return.
  • Quentin Johnston - Mentioned as a player who received receptions.
  • Ronde Gaston - Mentioned as a player who received receptions.
  • Keenan Allen - Mentioned as a player who received receptions.
  • Trey Hendrickson - Mentioned as a player who received some involvement.
  • Jaden Blue - Mentioned as a player who was hyped, and someone Fitz disliked.
  • Aaron Rodgers - Mentioned in comparison to Fitz's dislike of Jaden Blue.
  • Javonta Williams - Mentioned as a player who had an excellent year and was drafted by the host.
  • Mike Vrabel - Mentioned as being "hardo on rookies."
  • James Conner - Mentioned as a player whose injury was expected to benefit Trey Benson.
  • Zonovan Knight - Mentioned as a player in the Cardinals' backfield.
  • Michael Carter - Mentioned as a player in the Cardinals' backfield.
  • Amari Demarco - Mentioned as a player in the Cardinals' backfield.
  • Garrett Wilson - Mentioned as a roster clogger and a player who led the Jets in receiving yards despite limited catches.
  • Aaron Glenn - Mentioned as someone who "lied" about Garrett Wilson's return.
  • Quentin Johnston - Mentioned as a player who received receptions.
  • Ronde Gaston - Mentioned as a player who received receptions.
  • Keenan Allen - Mentioned as a player who received receptions.
  • Trey Hendrickson - Mentioned as a player who received some involvement.
  • Jaden Blue - Mentioned as a player who was hyped, and someone Fitz disliked.
  • Aaron Rodgers - Mentioned in comparison to Fitz's dislike of Jaden Blue.
  • Javonta Williams - Mentioned as a player who had an excellent year and was drafted by the host.
  • Mike Vrabel - Mentioned as being "hardo on rookies."
  • James Conner - Mentioned as a player whose injury was expected to benefit Trey Benson.
  • Zonovan Knight - Mentioned as a player in the Cardinals' backfield.
  • Michael Carter - Mentioned as a player in the Cardinals' backfield.
  • Amari Demarco - Mentioned as a player in the Cardinals' backfield.
  • Garrett Wilson - Mentioned as a roster clogger and a player who led the Jets in receiving yards despite limited catches.
  • Aaron Glenn - Mentioned as someone who "lied" about Garrett Wilson's return.
  • Quentin Johnston - Mentioned as a player who received receptions.
  • Ronde Gaston - Mentioned as a player who received receptions.
  • Keenan Allen - Mentioned as a player who received receptions.
  • Trey Hendrickson - Mentioned as a player who received some involvement.
  • Jaden Blue - Mentioned as a player who was hyped, and someone Fitz disliked.
  • Aaron Rodgers - Mentioned in comparison to Fitz's dislike of Jaden Blue.
  • Javonta Williams - Mentioned as a player who had an excellent year and was drafted by the host.
  • Mike Vrabel - Mentioned as being "hardo on rookies."
  • James Conner - Mentioned as a player whose injury was expected to benefit Trey Benson.
  • Zonovan Knight - Mentioned as a player in the Cardinals' backfield.
  • Michael Carter - Mentioned as a player in the Cardinals' backfield.
  • Amari Demarco - Mentioned as a player in the Cardinals' backfield.
  • Garrett Wilson - Mentioned as a roster clogger and a player who led the Jets in receiving yards despite limited catches.
  • Aaron Glenn - Mentioned as someone who "lied" about Garrett Wilson's return.
  • Quentin Johnston - Mentioned as a player who received receptions.
  • Ronde Gaston - Mentioned as a player who received receptions.
  • Keenan Allen - Mentioned as a player who received receptions.
  • Trey Hendrickson - Mentioned as a player who received some involvement.
  • Jaden Blue - Mentioned as a player who was hyped, and someone Fitz disliked.
  • Aaron Rodgers - Mentioned in comparison to Fitz's dislike of Jaden Blue.
  • Javonta Williams - Mentioned as a player who had an excellent year and was drafted by the host.
  • Mike Vrabel - Mentioned as being "hardo on rookies."
  • James Conner - Mentioned as a player whose injury was expected to benefit Trey Benson.
  • Zonovan Knight - Mentioned as a player in the Cardinals' backfield.
  • Michael Carter - Mentioned as a player in the Cardinals' backfield.
  • Amari Demarco - Mentioned as a player in the Cardinals' backfield.
  • Garrett Wilson - Mentioned as a roster clogger and a player who led the Jets in receiving yards despite limited catches.
  • Aaron Glenn - Mentioned as someone who "lied" about Garrett Wilson's return.
  • Quentin Johnston - Mentioned as a player who received receptions.
  • Ronde Gaston - Mentioned as a player who received receptions.
  • Keenan Allen - Mentioned as a player who received receptions.
  • Trey Hendrickson - Mentioned as a player who received some involvement.
  • Jaden Blue - Mentioned as a player who was hyped, and someone Fitz disliked.
  • Aaron Rodgers - Mentioned in comparison to Fitz's dislike of Jaden Blue.
  • Javonta Williams - Mentioned as a player who had an excellent year and was drafted by the host.
  • Mike Vrabel - Mentioned as being "hardo on rookies."
  • James Conner - Mentioned as a player whose injury was expected to benefit Trey Benson.
  • Zonovan Knight - Mentioned as a player in the Cardinals' backfield.
  • Michael Carter - Mentioned as a player in the Cardinals' backfield.
  • Amari Demarco - Mentioned as a player in the Cardinals' backfield.
  • Garrett Wilson - Mentioned as a roster clogger and a player who led the Jets in receiving yards despite limited catches.
  • Aaron Glenn - Mentioned as someone who "lied" about Garrett Wilson's return.
  • Quentin Johnston - Mentioned as a player who received receptions.
  • Ronde Gaston - Mentioned as a player who received receptions.
  • Keenan Allen - Mentioned as a player who received receptions.
  • Trey Hendrickson - Mentioned as a player who

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