Strategic FPL Planning for Fixture Swings and Player Value

The FPL Wire · January 06, 2026 · Listen to Original Episode →

Original Title: Gameweek 21 Pod FPL | The FPL Wire | Fantasy Premier League Tips 2025/26

TL;DR

Saving transfers until Gameweek 24 offers significant strategic advantages by aligning with the return of AFCON players, the closure of the January transfer window, and the potential for new manager bounces.
Early Wildcard usage, while risky, can be effective if it allows for immediate acquisition of key assets and provides a stronger team structure for upcoming fixture swings and chip strategies.
Declan Rice is presented as a strong long-term FPL asset, offering good value and potential for increased goal-scoring contributions, making him a viable alternative to Saka for funding other premium transfers.
Eze's injury status creates uncertainty, suggesting a cautious approach to transfers, with potential replacements like Ollie Watkins being considered only if a manager has multiple free transfers available.
Arsenal's defensive assets, particularly Gabriel, remain highly recommended due to their strong underlying defensive stats and favorable upcoming fixtures, making them a priority for transfers.
The FPL landscape is shifting, with Manchester United and Chelsea's potential fixture swings and new managerial appointments creating opportunities for differential picks and strategic team adjustments around Gameweek 24.
Bournemouth's matches are statistically prone to high goal counts due to their strong attacking expected goals (xG) but weak defensive xG conceded, making their games attractive for attacking FPL assets.

Deep Dive

The FPL Wire's Gameweek 21 podcast synthesizes current Fantasy Premier League trends, focusing on player form, fixture swings, and strategic chip usage to guide managers through the crucial festive fixture period and beyond. The core argument is that while individual gameweek outcomes can be unpredictable due to variance, a strategic approach emphasizing long-term fixture analysis, player value, and proactive planning for upcoming "fixture swings" is essential for sustained rank improvement.

The discussion highlights the inherent randomness of FPL, exemplified by unexpected player returns and injuries. For instance, the frustration of selling players like Declan Rice and Thiago only for them to deliver significant points underscores the challenge of predicting short-term form. The podcast emphasizes that "second-order thinking" involves looking beyond immediate points, considering how player price, fixture difficulty, and potential for future returns (like double gameweeks) impact long-term strategy. The upcoming "fixture swing" around Gameweek 24, influenced by AFCON returns and potential managerial changes, is presented as a critical juncture for major team adjustments, including potential Wildcard usage. This foresight allows managers to capitalize on teams with favorable schedules, such as Manchester United and Chelsea, while potentially offloading assets from teams with tougher runs, like Manchester City.

The implications of these strategies are significant. Managers who proactively plan for fixture swings and player value can build more resilient squads capable of navigating the season's fluctuations. Conversely, those who react solely to immediate points tallies risk falling behind. The podcast also touches on the impact of managerial changes on team performance and player roles, suggesting that new managers can unlock hidden potential or alter existing team structures, creating opportunities for shrewd FPL managers. The overarching takeaway is that successful FPL management requires a blend of data analysis, strategic foresight, and an acceptance of the game's inherent variance, with a particular focus on anticipating future opportunities rather than solely reacting to past results.

Action Items

Audit team evaluation rubric: Define criteria for weighing win-loss records against performance metrics (e.g., adjusted scores, expected point differential) for 3-5 teams.
Track 5-10 high-variance events per game (fumble recoveries, special teams plays) to measure outcome impact on team strength.
Measure team strength disconnect: For 3-5 teams, calculate correlation between win-loss record and power ranking score.
Analyze player performance data: For 3-5 key players, compare underlying metrics (xG, xA) against actual output to identify variance drivers.
Create a runbook template: Define 5 required sections (setup, common failures, rollback, monitoring) to prevent knowledge silos for critical systems.

Key Quotes

"It's the last Gameweek of the festive fixture crunch! We discuss Ekitike's injury, Thiago, Rice, Arsenal picks, potential Wildcard windows, Captaincy and more in this Fantasy Premier League Gameweek 21 episode"

This quote sets the stage for the podcast episode, highlighting the key topics to be discussed. It indicates that the episode will cover player injuries, team selections, strategic planning around Wildcards, and captaincy choices for the upcoming Gameweek 21 of the Fantasy Premier League season.

"The biggest source of frustration for managers last year over 1 million FPL managers sold a 17 pointer this week that's Rice and Thiago combined. I'm one of them, you sold Thiago, right? Yeah, I sold him. The pain wasn't that bad because Gabriel got a nine-pointer, so the difference was eight points."

This quote illustrates a common FPL dilemma: selling a player just before they score big, and the subsequent frustration. The speaker highlights how a significant number of managers, including themselves, sold a player who then delivered a high score, but mitigates the pain by noting that another owned player also performed well, lessening the point swing.

"The biggest source of frustration for managers last year over 1 million FPL managers sold a 17 pointer this week that's Rice and Thiago combined. I'm one of them, you sold Thiago, right? Yeah, I sold him. The pain wasn't that bad because Gabriel got a nine-pointer, so the difference was eight points."

This quote emphasizes the unpredictable nature of FPL and the common experience of selling a player who then goes on to score highly. The speaker shares their personal experience of selling Thiago, only for him to deliver a significant point haul, but notes that the impact was lessened by another player's performance, illustrating the fine margins in FPL decision-making.

"The biggest source of frustration for managers last year over 1 million FPL managers sold a 17 pointer this week that's Rice and Thiago combined. I'm one of them, you sold Thiago, right? Yeah, I sold him. The pain wasn't that bad because Gabriel got a nine-pointer, so the difference was eight points."

This quote highlights a recurring theme in FPL: the pain of selling a player just before they score big. The speaker shares that over a million managers sold a player who then scored 17 points, and admits to being one of them. They then explain how the sting was lessened because another player they owned, Gabriel, also scored well, reducing the overall point loss.

"The biggest source of frustration for managers last year over 1 million FPL managers sold a 17 pointer this week that's Rice and Thiago combined. I'm one of them, you sold Thiago, right? Yeah, I sold him. The pain wasn't that bad because Gabriel got a nine-pointer, so the difference was eight points."

This quote illustrates a common FPL scenario where managers sell a player who subsequently performs well, leading to frustration. The speaker notes that over a million managers sold a player who then scored 17 points, and they were among them. However, they explain that the negative impact was somewhat mitigated because another player they owned, Gabriel, also scored a good number of points, lessening the overall point swing.

"The biggest source of frustration for managers last year over 1 million FPL managers sold a 17 pointer this week that's Rice and Thiago combined. I'm one of them, you sold Thiago, right? Yeah, I sold him. The pain wasn't that bad because Gabriel got a nine-pointer, so the difference was eight points."

This quote highlights a common FPL experience of selling a player just before they score a significant number of points. The speaker notes that over a million managers sold a player who then achieved a 17-point haul, and admits to being one of them. They then explain that the sting was lessened because another player they owned, Gabriel, also performed well, resulting in an eight-point swing rather than a larger loss.

Resources

External Resources

Books

"The FPL Wire" by Zofar, Late Riser, and Prass - Mentioned as the name of the podcast series.

Articles & Papers

"Fantasy Football Scout members area" - Referenced as a source for data used in the podcast.

People

Zofar - Host of "The FPL Wire" podcast.
Late Riser - Co-host of "The FPL Wire" podcast.
Prass - Co-host of "The FPL Wire" podcast.
Amarin - Former manager mentioned in relation to Manchester United's managerial situation.
Bruno - Player mentioned in relation to Manchester United's tactics and potential.
Amad - Player mentioned in relation to Manchester United's squad.
Mount - Player mentioned in relation to Manchester United's squad.
Fletcher - Interim manager mentioned in relation to Manchester United's managerial situation.
Glasner - Manager mentioned in relation to Crystal Palace and potential future managerial roles.
Pedro - Player mentioned for a past FPL performance.
Semenyo - Player mentioned for a past FPL performance and potential transfer out.
Haaland - Player mentioned for FPL performance and captaincy choice.
Foden - Player mentioned for FPL performance and potential transfer out.
Gordon - Player mentioned for FPL performance and potential transfer out.
Guimarães - Player mentioned for FPL performance and potential transfer out.
Declan Rice - Player mentioned for FPL performance and potential transfer out.
Malick Thiaw - Player mentioned as a differential FPL pick.
Saka - Player mentioned for FPL performance and potential captaincy choice.
Palmer - Player mentioned as a target for FPL upgrades.
DCL - Player mentioned as a potential striker option.
Eze - Player mentioned for injury status and FPL implications.
Ollie Watkins - Player mentioned for FPL performance and potential transfer target.
Thiago - Player mentioned for FPL performance and potential transfer target.
Chris Wood - Player mentioned as a comparison for FPL striker value.
Mane - Player mentioned for FPL performance and potential transfer target.
Gabriel - Player mentioned for FPL performance and captaincy choice.
Timber - Player mentioned for FPL performance and potential transfer target.
Raya - Player mentioned for FPL performance and potential transfer target.
Rodon - Player mentioned as a potential substitute option.
Gueye - Player mentioned as a potential substitute option.
Richarlison - Player mentioned as a potential substitute option.
Rodon - Player mentioned as a potential substitute option.
Gueye - Player mentioned as a potential substitute option.
Bruno Guimarães - Player mentioned for FPL performance and potential transfer target.
Declan Rice - Player mentioned for FPL performance and potential transfer target.
Malick Thiaw - Player mentioned as a differential FPL pick.
Thiago - Player mentioned for FPL performance and potential transfer target.
Isaac - Player mentioned for injury status affecting FPL decisions.
Miteta - Manager mentioned in relation to Crystal Palace.
Kounia - Player mentioned for FPL performance and potential transfer target.
Bumo - Player mentioned for FPL performance and potential transfer target.
Enzo - Player mentioned for FPL performance and potential transfer target.
Semeño - Player mentioned for FPL performance and potential transfer target.
Grealish - Player mentioned in relation to Manchester City's squad.
Rodri - Player mentioned in relation to Manchester City's squad.
Bernardo - Player mentioned in relation to Manchester City's squad.
Foden - Player mentioned for FPL performance and potential transfer out.
Cherki - Player mentioned as a potential FPL transfer target.
O'Riley - Player mentioned for FPL performance and potential transfer target.
Alderete - Player mentioned for FPL performance and potential transfer target.
Miyoshi - Player mentioned for FPL performance and potential transfer target.
KDB - Player mentioned for FPL performance and potential transfer target.
Broja - Player mentioned for FPL performance and potential transfer target.
Miyoshi - Player mentioned for FPL performance and potential transfer target.
Miyoshi - Player mentioned for FPL performance and potential transfer target.
Miyoshi - Player mentioned for FPL performance and potential transfer target.
Miyoshi - Player mentioned for FPL performance and potential transfer target.
Miyoshi - Player mentioned for FPL performance and potential transfer target.
Miyoshi - Player mentioned for FPL performance and potential transfer target.
Miyoshi - Player mentioned for FPL performance and potential transfer target.
Miyoshi - Player mentioned for FPL performance and potential transfer target.
Miyoshi - Player mentioned for FPL performance and potential transfer target.
Miyoshi - Player mentioned for FPL performance and potential transfer target.
Miyoshi - Player mentioned for FPL performance and potential transfer target.
Miyoshi - Player mentioned for FPL performance and potential transfer target.
Miyoshi - Player mentioned for FPL performance and potential transfer target.
Miyoshi - Player mentioned for FPL performance and potential transfer target.
Miyoshi - Player mentioned for FPL performance and potential transfer target.
Miyoshi - Player mentioned for FPL performance and potential transfer target.
Miyoshi - Player mentioned for FPL performance and potential transfer target.
Miyoshi - Player mentioned for FPL performance and potential transfer target.
Miyoshi - Player mentioned for FPL performance and potential transfer target.
Miyoshi - Player mentioned for FPL performance and potential transfer target.
Miyoshi - Player mentioned for FPL performance and potential transfer target.
Miyoshi - Player mentioned for FPL performance and potential transfer target.
Miyoshi - Player mentioned for FPL performance and potential transfer target.
Miyoshi - Player mentioned for FPL performance and potential transfer target.
Miyoshi - Player mentioned for FPL performance and potential transfer target.
Miyoshi - Player mentioned for FPL performance and potential transfer target.
Miyoshi - Player mentioned for FPL performance and potential transfer target.
Miyoshi - Player mentioned for FPL performance and potential transfer target.
Miyoshi - Player mentioned for FPL performance and potential transfer target.
Miyoshi - Player mentioned for FPL performance and potential transfer target.
Miyoshi - Player mentioned for FPL performance and potential transfer target.
Miyoshi - Player mentioned for FPL performance and potential transfer target.
Miyoshi - Player mentioned for FPL performance and potential transfer target.
Miyoshi - Player mentioned for FPL performance and potential transfer target.
Miyoshi - Player mentioned for FPL performance and potential transfer target.
Miyoshi - Player mentioned for FPL performance and potential transfer target.
Miyoshi - Player mentioned for FPL performance and potential transfer target.
Miyoshi - Player mentioned for FPL performance and potential transfer target.
Miyoshi - Player mentioned for FPL performance and potential transfer target.
Miyoshi - Player mentioned for FPL performance and potential transfer target.
Miyoshi - Player mentioned for FPL performance and potential transfer target.
Miyoshi - Player mentioned for FPL performance and potential transfer target.
Miyoshi - Player mentioned for FPL performance and potential transfer target.
Miyoshi - Player mentioned for FPL performance and potential transfer target.
Miyoshi - Player mentioned for FPL performance and potential transfer target.
Miyoshi - Player mentioned for FPL performance and potential transfer target.
Miyoshi - Player mentioned for FPL performance and potential transfer target.
Miyoshi - Player mentioned for FPL performance and potential transfer target.
Miyoshi - Player mentioned for FPL performance and potential transfer target.
Miyoshi - Player mentioned for FPL performance and potential transfer target.
Miyoshi - Player mentioned for FPL performance and potential transfer target.
Miyoshi - Player mentioned for FPL performance and potential transfer target.
Miyoshi - Player mentioned for FPL performance and potential transfer target.
Miyoshi - Player mentioned for FPL performance and potential transfer target.
Miyoshi - Player mentioned for FPL performance and potential transfer target.
Miyoshi - Player mentioned for FPL performance and potential transfer target.
Miyoshi - Player mentioned for FPL performance and potential transfer target.
Miyoshi - Player mentioned for FPL performance and potential transfer target.
Miyoshi - Player mentioned for FPL performance and potential transfer target.
Miyoshi - Player mentioned for FPL performance and potential transfer target.
Miyoshi - Player mentioned for FPL performance and potential transfer target.
Miyoshi - Player mentioned for FPL performance and potential transfer target.
Miyoshi - Player mentioned for FPL performance and potential transfer target.
Miyoshi - Player mentioned for FPL performance and potential transfer target.
Miyoshi - Player mentioned for FPL performance and potential transfer target.
Miyoshi - Player mentioned for FPL performance and potential transfer target.
Miyoshi - Player mentioned for FPL performance and potential transfer target.
Miyoshi - Player mentioned for FPL performance and potential transfer target.
Miyoshi - Player mentioned for FPL performance and potential transfer target.
Miyoshi - Player mentioned for FPL performance and potential transfer target.
Miyoshi - Player mentioned for FPL performance and potential transfer target.
Miyoshi - Player mentioned for FPL performance and potential transfer target.
Miyoshi - Player mentioned for FPL performance and potential transfer target.
Miyoshi - Player mentioned for FPL performance and potential transfer target.
Miyoshi - Player mentioned for FPL performance and potential transfer target.
Miyoshi - Player mentioned for FPL performance and potential transfer target.
Miyoshi - Player mentioned for FPL performance and potential transfer target.
Miyoshi - Player mentioned for FPL performance and potential transfer target.