Premier League Tactical Shift: Set Pieces Replace Open Play Scoring
TL;DR
- Premier League open-play goal scoring has decreased to 1.76 goals per match, the lowest in the data era, while set-piece goals have risen to 0.83 per match, indicating a significant tactical shift prioritizing set pieces over open play.
- The rise in set-piece goals, particularly from throw-ins, suggests teams are exploiting tactical advantages to score, leading to a decrease in opportunities for traditional strikers and a potential shift in defensive strategies.
- Teams are increasingly adopting conservative possession-based tactics, leveraging set pieces for scoring and maintaining defensive structure, which may reduce the effectiveness of pressing and transition attacks from opponents.
- The rapid tactical shift towards set pieces, occurring over one to two seasons, contrasts with the decade-long evolution of open-play innovations, raising questions about whether defensive strategies will adapt quickly enough.
- A potential domino effect suggests that if teams prioritize conservative possession and set-piece scoring, the next evolution could involve less ambitious attacking play from weaker teams, mirroring historical defensive styles.
- Strikers are experiencing a significant drop in penalty area touches, from 4.7 per match in 2010-2013 to 3.5 this season, indicating a reduced role in open-play attacks and a potential strategic imbalance.
- The current tactical meta may be inefficient, with gains from marauding fullbacks not compensating for the substantial decrease in striker touches in the penalty area, leading to fewer overall attacking opportunities.
Deep Dive
Set pieces are fundamentally reshaping the Premier League, accounting for an unprecedented percentage of goals this season while open-play scoring plummets. This tactical shift suggests a strategic move by teams to prioritize lower-risk, higher-reward set-piece opportunities, potentially at the expense of traditional attacking play and striker efficacy.
The core of this transformation lies in a strategic re-evaluation of attacking priorities. Teams are increasingly leveraging set pieces--corners, free kicks, and long throws--as primary goal-scoring avenues. This is evidenced by set-piece goals comprising 32% of non-penalty goals in the Premier League this season, the highest percentage in the analyzed data era. This contrasts sharply with the preceding decade, where tactical innovations focused on increasing open-play scoring, leading to a redistribution of goals away from set pieces. The current trend represents a rapid reversal, with open-play goals per match at their lowest in the data era (1.76), while set-piece goals have risen significantly, not only in the Premier League but also in leagues like Germany and Italy.
This shift has profound second-order implications for player roles and team strategy. The increased reliance on set pieces de-emphasizes the need for prolific open-play strikers. Data shows a significant decrease in penalty area touches for strikers, dropping from an average of 4.7 per match in the early 2010s to 3.5 this season. This suggests that traditional striker duties of generating open-play chances and scoring are becoming less central. Instead, teams are deploying taller, defensively capable players, such as center-backs, in attacking set-piece situations, leading to an increase in goals scored by non-attackers. This strategic choice allows teams to maintain possession conservatively, minimize defensive risks, and generate scoring opportunities without the need for complex attacking build-up or high-risk transitions. Teams like Arsenal and Brentford exemplify this approach, prioritizing defensive solidity and capitalizing on set pieces rather than pursuing aggressive open-play attacks.
The rapid nature of this tactical evolution raises questions about defensive adaptation. While attacking set-piece strategies have become more sophisticated, defensive innovations have lagged, creating an imbalance. The ease with which certain set-piece tactics, particularly long throws, can be copied and implemented suggests that this trend could persist if defenses do not evolve. This could lead to a more conservative style of play, where teams prioritize drawing games and minimizing risks, potentially diminishing the excitement and attacking dynamism that characterized football in the previous decade. The current meta, where teams rely heavily on set pieces and conservative possession, may be inefficient if defensive strategies do not adapt, potentially leading to a less engaging brand of football. The question remains whether defensive tactics will catch up to attacking innovations, or if rule changes or further tactical evolution will be necessary to rebalance the game.
Action Items
- Audit set piece defending: Analyze 5 recent matches for common defensive breakdowns and propose 3 tactical adjustments to prevent future goals.
- Implement throw-in rule enforcement: Train referees to strictly enforce existing throw-in rules (e.g., foot placement, steps) to disincentivize long throw tactics.
- Track striker penalty area touches: Measure striker touches within the penalty area over 5-10 games to identify trends and potential role shifts.
- Evaluate set piece attacking strategy: For 3-5 teams, quantify the correlation between set piece opportunities and open play goal scoring to assess tactical reliance.
Key Quotes
"Teams are taking more set pieces, they are scoring more set pieces, they are better at set pieces than they were and this this is a couple of things. It is they are shooting directly from set pieces less, they are converting set pieces into better shots and they're not outstripping their xg. They have found ways to make their set piece xg become elevated is a larger part of the story."
The author argues that teams are not necessarily outperforming their expected goals (xG) from set pieces, but rather they are becoming more effective at generating higher-quality shots from these situations. This suggests a tactical evolution in how set pieces are approached, focusing on conversion rather than simply taking more attempts.
"This season in the Premier League of non-penalty goals, 68 have been scored from set pieces whether that is corners, whether that is uh free kicks taken as set piece crosses or shots or whether that is long throws. Those have that that accounts for 32% of goals, which is the highest percentage in any league any season of the big five leagues from 2010 to 2025."
This quote highlights the unprecedented dominance of set pieces in Premier League goal scoring this season. The author presents this statistic to demonstrate the extreme shift in goal distribution, indicating that over a third of non-penalty goals are now originating from set-piece situations, a figure not seen in the past decade.
"The reason that set pieces were such a big part of the game 15 years ago in England is very different than the reason they are now. 15 years ago goals were scored from set pieces because defenses succeeded in stopping attacks. Now goals are scored for set pieces because teams are electing to attack through set pieces because they feel like if they have an advantage scoring goals from set pieces they don't it is better to attack that way and therefore not leave themselves open defensively."
The author distinguishes between historical and current reasons for set piece importance. Previously, set pieces were a consequence of defensive success in thwarting open play. Now, teams are proactively choosing set pieces as a primary attacking strategy to gain an advantage without exposing themselves defensively.
"The increase in set piece goal scoring is in the range of 40% throw in set pieces. So if we're talking about like what's going to change here like a significant part of it is that teams are doing a better job scoring from set pieces and you can you can watch it happen every week these teams are doing these things that are working."
This quote emphasizes the significant contribution of throw-ins to the overall increase in set piece goals. The author points out that this specific type of set piece is now a more potent scoring opportunity, and teams are actively implementing strategies that are proving successful in converting them.
"I think one of the main things going over this from a longer time horizon has shown me is how weird it is for things to change so so much so quickly. We haven't had a moment where the game seemed to be changing so much so quickly in the time I've been doing this and the big big changes that everyone talked about over the course of the 2010s all of the the evolution of English football that all happened so much more slowly than this."
The author expresses surprise at the rapid pace of tactical change in football. They contrast the current swift evolution with the more gradual shifts observed over the past decade, suggesting that the speed at which these tactical trends are emerging is unusual.
"The most obvious thing and the increase in goals from throw in set pieces, balls launched into the penalty area, it goes from practically zero now to 0.13 goals per match in the Premier League."
This quote quantifies the dramatic rise in goal-scoring from throw-ins. The author highlights that this specific set piece, which previously yielded minimal goals, now contributes a notable amount to the overall scoring in the Premier League.
Resources
External Resources
Books
- "Medieval Football" - Mentioned as a historical comparison for defensive tactics.
Articles & Papers
- "The Double Pivot: Soccer analysis, analytics, and commentary" (Podcast) - Mentioned as the source of the discussion.
- "Expected Goals (xG)" - Discussed as a metric for evaluating goal-scoring opportunities.
- "Non-penalty expected goals per 90" - Discussed as a metric for evaluating striker performance.
People
- Michael Caley - Host of "The Double Pivot" podcast.
- Mike Goodman - Host of "The Double Pivot" podcast.
- Victor Osimhen - Mentioned in relation to striker performance and goal scoring.
- Erling Haaland - Mentioned as an example of a player who gets many shots.
- Dominic Solanke - Mentioned in relation to shooting directly from set pieces.
- Jose Mourinho - Mentioned in relation to defensive tactics.
- Sam Allardyce - Mentioned in relation to defensive tactics.
- Jürgen Klopp - Mentioned in relation to tactical modernization.
- Pep Guardiola - Mentioned in relation to tactical modernization.
- Sean Dyche - Mentioned in relation to defensive tactics.
- Arne Slot - Mentioned in relation to striker roles.
- Mark Cucurella - Mentioned as an example of a fullback with penalty area touches.
- Malo Gusto - Mentioned as an example of a fullback with penalty area touches.
- Riccardo Calafiori - Mentioned as an example of a fullback with penalty area touches.
- Brendan Rodgers - Mentioned in relation to tactical approaches.
- Theo Epstein - Mentioned in relation to potential rule changes.
- John Muller - Mentioned in relation to a specific type of long ball tactic.
Organizations & Institutions
- Premier League - Primary subject of tactical and goal-scoring analysis.
- Bundesliga - Mentioned for comparison of goal-scoring trends.
- La Liga - Mentioned for comparison of goal-scoring trends.
- Serie A - Mentioned for comparison of goal-scoring trends.
- Arsenal - Mentioned as an example team for set-piece defense and attacking strategy.
- Chelsea - Mentioned in relation to striker roles and set-piece strategy.
- Brentford - Mentioned as an example of a team that relies on set pieces and defensive possession.
- Sunderland - Mentioned as an example of a team outperforming talent through a set-piece dependent system.
- Crystal Palace - Mentioned in relation to talent fitting together and pressing.
- Fulham - Mentioned in relation to talent acquisition and scouting for set-piece defense.
- Nottingham Forest - Mentioned in relation to defensive tactics.
- New England Patriots - Mentioned as example team for performance analysis.
- Pro Football Focus (PFF) - Data source for player grading.
Websites & Online Resources
- Patreon.com/doublepivot - Mentioned as a platform for subscribing to additional episodes.
- The Double Pivot Discord - Mentioned as a community for discussion.
- ExpectedGoals.com - Mentioned as a resource for soccer analytics.
- Hitc.com - Mentioned as a resource for soccer analytics.
Other Resources
- Set Pieces - Primary focus of the discussion regarding goal-scoring trends.
- Open Play Goal Scoring - Discussed in contrast to set-piece goal scoring.
- Tactical Changes - Discussed as a factor influencing goal-scoring.
- Rest Defense Structure - Mentioned as a defensive strategy.
- Chaos Maxing - Discussed as a defensive strategy.
- Foul Throws - Discussed as a rule that could be more strictly enforced.
- Clock Management - Discussed as a potential area for rule changes to influence game flow.
- The Shift (Baseball) - Used as an analogy for rule changes impacting strategy.