Western Decline Fuels Multipolar Instability and Nuclear Proliferation Risk

The West's Crumbling Foundation: A Geopolitical Reckoning and the Unseen Costs of Complacency

The post-World War II global order, once a bedrock of stability, is rapidly disintegrating, revealing a multipolar world where national interests trump international cooperation and the illusion of a rules-based system has dissolved. This conversation with Konstantin Kisin doesn't just diagnose the symptoms--Russia's invasion of Ukraine, geopolitical tensions with China, and the shifting dynamics in regions like Iran--but delves into the underlying causes: decades of Western complacency, a erosion of moral authority, and a dangerous prioritization of "what feels good" over "what works." The hidden consequence of this decline is a more volatile, unpredictable, and potentially violent global landscape, particularly for Europe, which has actively weakened itself through misguided economic and energy policies. Anyone seeking to understand the seismic shifts reshaping our world, and how past decisions are creating future crises, will find crucial insights here, offering a strategic advantage in navigating an increasingly uncertain future.

The Illusion of Order: When "Rules" Become Optional

The current geopolitical landscape, marked by events like Russia's invasion of Ukraine and China's assertive stance on Taiwan, signals the definitive collapse of the post-World War II order. Konstantin Kisin argues that this wasn't a sudden event but a gradual erosion, accelerated by the West's loss of focus and sense of purpose after the Soviet Union's collapse. The "rules-based order" was never self-enforcing; it relied on the implicit or explicit power of the dominant global player. As that dominance wanes, and as Western nations have undermined their own moral authority through interventions like the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, the framework that once provided a semblance of global stability has fractured.

"What you're seeing is the final collapse of what people described as the post-World War II order, which then became the post-Soviet collapse order... the entire framework that we have had since World War II is disintegrating very rapidly."

-- Konstantin Kisin

This disintegration creates a vacuum, a "every man for himself" mentality where nations, like the United States under Trump's foreign policy, begin to act solely on perceived national interest. The consequence for Europe is particularly stark. Decades of prioritizing welfare spending over defense, and pursuing "net zero" policies that led to reliance on Russian gas, have rendered the continent economically vulnerable and militarily weak. Germany's decision to dismantle its nuclear facilities, making it dependent on Russian energy, is a prime example of how short-term ideological goals, detached from practical consequences, can lead to strategic disaster. The "consequences are here," as Kisin states, manifesting in reduced per capita income and the highest peacetime tax burden in history.

The Nuclear Deterrent: A Double-Edged Sword in a Multipolar World

The increasing assertiveness of nuclear powers like Russia and China raises a critical question: have nuclear weapons become the ultimate guarantor of national security, allowing states to act with impunity? Kisin suggests this is a growing reality. The West's failure to adequately support Ukraine, for instance, sends a clear signal that aggression might go unchecked if the aggressor possesses nuclear capabilities. This precedent is dangerous, incentivizing other nations to pursue nuclear weapons as the only true guarantee of security. The unipolar moment, where the US was the undisputed global hegemon, provided a degree of stability, albeit imperfect. Its end has ushered in a multipolar world, and Kisin warns that this transition is inherently more violent and unstable, akin to a power struggle between cartels when a central authority collapses.

"The people with nuclear weapons can do what they want and they can never be attacked, and the people with no nuclear weapons are vulnerable and weak, what would be the most rational thing for you to do if you're a smaller country?"

-- Konstantin Kisin

The risk is not just regional conflicts but a broader arms race and economic fragmentation. History shows that multipolar worlds are characterized by increased friction, weakened rules, and a higher propensity for conflict. While nuclear weapons have, paradoxically, acted as a constraint on large-scale wars in the past, their proliferation in a more aggressive multipolar environment presents an existential threat.

The AI Tsunami: Jobless Futures and the Specter of Communism

The accelerating advancements in Artificial Intelligence and robotics present a profound, yet often unacknowledged, challenge. Kisin highlights the consensus among AI experts that widespread job losses are inevitable and will likely fuel a surge in socialist or communist ideologies. As AI and robots become capable of performing a vast array of tasks, from driving vehicles to complex surgeries, millions of jobs will disappear. This technological disruption, coupled with existing economic anxieties like housing unaffordability and elite overproduction (a consequence of mass university enrollment without corresponding job growth), creates fertile ground for radical redistributionist ideas.

The prospect of a world where wealth is generated by machines and accrues to a tiny elite is deeply destabilizing. Kisin posits that in such a scenario, a form of communism--where everyone is provided for--might become an unavoidable outcome, either voluntarily through wealth redistribution or through more forceful means. The current trajectory, where economic growth is artificially inflated by population increases rather than per capita gains, masks a deeper decline. The consequence of this is a society where a significant portion of the population is disengaged, unproductive, and potentially radicalized, creating a dangerous feedback loop.

"In a world in which no one has a job, I'm like 100% on board with communism... if all the wealth in the world is going to be created by robots, a world in which the products of their labor only accrues to 50 people who had the idea or did the work 20 years ago, that's not going to sustain itself."

-- Konstantin Kisin

Actionable Takeaways: Navigating the Shifting Tides

• Prioritize Economic Realism Over Ideological Comfort: Shift focus from policies that "feel good" to those that demonstrably "work" in practice. This means re-evaluating economic strategies based on tangible outcomes rather than emotional appeals. (Immediate action)
• Rebuild National Strength and Relevance: For nations like the UK, this requires a strategic reorientation towards economic growth, rebuilding military capacity, and fostering strong alliances, particularly with the United States. (Long-term investment)
• Address Immigration Holistically: Implement policies that integrate existing immigrant populations fully while strictly controlling future inflows, particularly illegal immigration, to maintain social cohesion and a sense of fairness. (Ongoing effort)
• Invest in Future-Proof Skills: Equip children with adaptable, fundamental life skills--resourcefulness, creativity, a positive mindset--rather than specific career paths that may soon be automated. (Over the next 5-10 years)
• Recognize the Inevitability of AI Disruption: Businesses and individuals must proactively engage with AI, not just to avoid being replaced, but to leverage its capabilities for innovation and efficiency. (Immediate action)
• Foster a Culture of Responsibility and Long-Term Thinking: Encourage a societal shift away from short-term gratification and towards an understanding of the long-term consequences of decisions, both personal and political. (Cultural shift, pays off in 5-10 years)
• Support Leaders Who Champion Pragmatic Policies: Back political figures who prioritize economic growth, fiscal responsibility, and national security, even if their approach is less ideologically pure or immediately popular. (Immediate action)