How Outsourcing Security to Paramilitary Proxies Destabilizes States

Nesrine Malik’s analysis of the Sudan conflict reveals a systemic failure: the creation of a Frankenstein actor, Hemeti, who used the state’s own survival mechanisms to dismantle it. The conflict is not just a civil war but the logical result of a power-sharing arrangement between two incompatible entities: a traditional military establishment and a mercenary force. This case study shows how elite reliance on paramilitary proxies to solve immediate political instability creates a long-term existential threat. For those watching geopolitics and organizational strategy, the lesson is clear: when you outsource your core security to an entity that thrives on instability, you are not buying peace; you are financing your own replacement.

The Hidden Cost of Outsourcing Security

The Sudanese military establishment, led by General Burhan, treated the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) as a convenient way to outsource government military activities. By turning the Janjaweed militia into the RSF, the state gained a Praetorian guard that could suppress dissent in the periphery without the army getting its hands dirty.

However, this created a feedback loop the state could not control. By granting Hemeti official ranks, budgets, and operational autonomy, the military gave him the institutional legitimacy he needed to compete for the top of the hierarchy. As Malik notes, the military viewed the RSF as a tool for crushing dissent, failing to account for the fact that a paramilitary force with its own budget and gold-mining revenue would eventually view the state as a competitor rather than a patron.

"He has drawn the army all of Sudan into an unprecedented confrontation in which the country's army, under Burhan, now finds itself a war with a large paramilitary force that it cannot dominate under a leader that it cannot control."

-- Nesrine Malik

Why the Obvious Fixes Failed

The transition period after the 2019 revolution was a masterclass in ignoring downstream consequences. International actors and local civilian parties pushed for a framework agreement that assumed the two generals would voluntarily give up power. This was a fundamental misreading of the system incentives.

The military and the RSF were not partners in a democratic transition; they were rivals in a zero-sum game for survival. Malik points out that the military backtracked on agreements the moment they realized they could not control the integration process, while Hemeti viewed the civilian-led framework as a trap. The obvious solution, a power-sharing deal, failed because it ignored the reality that both actors were fundamentally incompatible with the civilian oversight they pretended to accept.

The 18-Month Payoff of Outsider Strategy

Hemeti’s rise was not a fluke; it was a result of his ability to leverage the intersecting strands of Sudan's conflicts. While the traditional elite mocked his background and accent, Hemeti used his status as an outsider to build a self-sustaining empire. He did not rely on the state for his power; he leveraged gold mines and mercenary contracts in Yemen and Libya to fund his own expansion.

"Hemeti was not a freedom fighter but a pragmatist who used the intersecting strands of Sudan's conflicts to advance his interests."

-- Nesrine Malik

By the time the state tried to force his integration, he had already achieved a level of financial and military independence that made the state’s threats toothless. The immediate pain of his early, brutal tactics in Darfur was ignored by the central government because it served their short-term goal of suppressing rebels. That tolerance of early-stage violence created a monster that eventually turned its sights on the capital itself.

Key Action Items

• Audit your dependencies: Identify convenient proxies or vendors that handle your most difficult tasks. If they hold the keys to your operational continuity, you are already in a position of dependency. (Immediate)
• Stress-test your power-sharing agreements: If a deal relies on the good faith of actors with competing survival incentives, assume the deal will collapse the moment one side feels threatened. (Over the next quarter)
• Recognize the Outsider threat: In any system, watch for actors who operate outside your primary budget or control structure. Their lack of reliance on your resources is not a benefit; it is a signal that they are building an independent power base. (Ongoing)
• Account for the Frankenstein effect: When you build a system to solve a current problem, such as suppressing dissent, map out the worst-case scenario: what happens when that tool turns its capabilities toward you? (12-18 months)
• Prioritize long-term structural integrity over immediate stability: The Sudanese elite chose the short-term stability of a military-RSF pact over the long-term work of building a genuine civilian state. The result was total systemic collapse. (18+ months)