Prioritize Consistent Performers and Differential Gains in Volatile FPL
TL;DR
- Prioritizing players like Gabriel and Declan Rice, even against strong opponents like Liverpool, is crucial as they consistently deliver high scores and offer significant value.
- Investing in top-tier defenders like Gabriel, who leads scoring despite missed games, provides a reliable foundation and captaincy potential, outperforming many forwards.
- The high volatility of recent Gameweeks, with scores ranging from 30 to over 100, emphasizes the importance of strategic player selection over chasing marginal gains.
- Players like Enzo Fernandez offer significant cost savings and better form compared to more expensive Chelsea options like Cole Palmer, making him a superior FPL asset.
- While 4-5-1 formations can be viable due to defender and midfielder bonus points, maintaining flexibility with two or even three strikers offers greater strategic advantage.
- The unpredictability of Premier League clean sheets suggests focusing investment on midfield and attack, with cheaper defenders providing sufficient defensive coverage.
- Erling Haaland remains a must-captain option at home, even after a few blanks, due to his inherent potential for high-scoring hauls against any opponent.
Deep Dive
The core of this FPL podcast episode revolves around navigating the volatile Gameweek 20 and preparing for the upcoming Gameweek 21, emphasizing strategic player selections and captaincy choices amidst squad rotation and unexpected performances. The "so what" is that FPL managers must adapt to unpredictable outcomes, prioritizing consistent performers and well-reasoned decisions over chasing crowd-driven transfers, especially when significant rank jumps are possible through astute differential picks.
The discussion highlights the unpredictable nature of Fantasy Premier League, using Gameweek 20 as an example of extreme score swings. The host shares his personal experience of a successful "green arrow" despite rolling a transfer, attributing it to a strong bench that capitalized on an unexpected hat-trick from a previously benched player. This underscores the second-order implication that a well-constructed squad with depth can create opportunities for significant gains, even with conservative initial moves. The episode then delves into a detailed player watchlist update, removing players with uncertain minutes or declining form (e.g., Lewis Hall, Nunez, Dorgu, Jesus) and adding those showing promise or returning from injury (e.g., Nathan Collins, Kjaergaard, Pedro Porro, Enzo Fernandez, Bruno Fernandes, Ollie Watkins, Raheem Sterling, Mahrez). This process reveals a critical second-order implication: player selection is not static and requires continuous re-evaluation based on form, fixtures, and potential for unexpected returns, rather than solely on preseason expectations. The conversation around Thiago's unexpected hat-trick after being sold by many, and the subsequent regret, reinforces the idea that while sound decision-making logic is paramount, extreme outcomes like hat-tricks are often unpredictable and should not lead to overthinking past choices; instead, focus should remain on the process.
The episode also addresses the critical question of acquiring key Arsenal players, Gabriel and Declan Rice. The host strongly advocates for their immediate inclusion, arguing that their consistent high scores and potential for significant returns (e.g., a Gabriel goal and clean sheet leading to a 15-point haul) outweigh fixture concerns against tough opponents like Liverpool. This points to a systemic implication: players with proven FPL assets, regardless of team form or opponent, often provide a more reliable floor and ceiling for points. Furthermore, the discussion on Virgil van Dijk's impending sale, due to poor form and a difficult fixture against Arsenal, highlights the second-order consequence of holding onto underperforming premium assets: they tie up significant budget that could be reinvested in more dynamic options, and their defensive frailties can lead to missed clean sheets and bonus points. The host's plan to replace Van Dijk and Raya with cheaper, more reliable options like Schuurs and a new goalkeeper (e.g., Robert Sanchez or Jordan Pickford) illustrates the strategic trade-off of sacrificing premium names for improved squad flexibility and coverage. Finally, the captaincy discussion, particularly for those without Haaland, emphasizes a week-to-week, fixture-dependent approach, with an inclination towards players showing good underlying numbers and recent form, while also keeping future transfer plans in mind to facilitate potential captaincy options.
The key takeaway is that successful FPL management in a highly variable season hinges on proactive, data-driven decisions regarding player transfers and captaincy, prioritizing consistent performers and opportunities for differential gains over blindly following popular opinion, especially when dealing with an unpredictable fixture list and player availability.
Action Items
- Audit defensive unit: Assess 3-5 players for consistent minutes and defensive contribution metrics (e.g., bonus points, saves) to identify systemic weaknesses.
- Track player price changes: Monitor 5-10 key player price movements daily to inform timely transfer decisions and avoid missed opportunities.
- Evaluate transfer logic: For 3-5 recent transfers, analyze the decision-making process against actual outcomes to refine future strategy.
- Measure captaincy consistency: For the last 5-10 gameweeks, calculate the correlation between captain choice and fixture difficulty.
Key Quotes
"Gameweek 20 is behind us and what a crazy gameweek it was probably the most swingy gameweek of the season i've seen managers scoring 30 points i've seen managers scoring over 100 points shout out to james at the planet fpl podcast possibly the best gameweek i've ever seen go check out his score if you haven't seen it already"
The author, Mark McGin, highlights the extreme variability in scores during Gameweek 20, noting the significant difference between the lowest and highest fantasy football points. McGin emphasizes that this was one of the most volatile weeks of the season, suggesting that luck and performance can lead to vastly different outcomes for managers.
"I've got two frees no transfers made yet and plenty of potential routes to take make sure you hit subscribe or follow wherever you're listening for future episodes and leave a five star review as well if you enjoy the show it's patreon com fpl general if you want to get more content and support me as a full time content creator seven day free trial available there is a link in the description"
Mark McGin outlines his current team status, indicating he has two available transfers and has not yet made any moves for the upcoming Gameweek 21. McGin also uses this point to encourage listeners to subscribe, leave reviews, and support his content creation through Patreon, providing his relevant links.
"but of course i didn't have gabriel and i didn't have declan rice two players that i think we should all be looking to get if we don't already have them so we'll talk about those guys later manchester city triple up didn't do too well either o'riley was on for a nine pointer before enzo fernandez scored cherki got def con for the second week in a row somehow so at least he didn't blank and phil foden four blanks in a row after four double digit hauls"
Mark McGin discusses his personal fantasy football team's performance, noting the absence of key players like Gabriel and Declan Rice, whom he believes are essential. McGin also reviews the underperformance of his Manchester City players, highlighting specific instances of low scores and missed opportunities for some key assets.
"The author argues, "The logic to go and thiago to ezequiel a few weeks ago was absolutely sound because isaac got injured long term ezequiel and liverpool were going into wolves at home leads at home fulham away it was an absolute no brainer to get ezequiel Now it didn't work out I think he only got an assist against wolves blanked against leads and then got injured we didn't know he was going to get injured and thiago had six thiago went six games without a goal before this hat trick""
Mark McGin defends a previous transfer decision, explaining that moving from Thiago to Ezequiel was a logical choice based on player injuries and favorable upcoming fixtures. McGin acknowledges that the transfer did not yield the expected points due to unforeseen circumstances like Ezequiel's injury and Thiago's subsequent high-scoring performance.
"So for me enzo sanchez chalobah and i have got no plans to buy palmer i'll be prioritizing bruno fernandez back in first and i'll keep a close eye on palmer's performances"
Mark McGin states his preferred Chelsea player targets, specifically mentioning Enzo Fernandez, Sanchez, and Chalobah, while expressing a lack of interest in Cole Palmer at this time. McGin prioritizes acquiring Bruno Fernandes and will monitor Palmer's form before considering him for his team.
"So I am definitely selling van dijk this week I've got two frees so it's a little bit easier for me to do so I can also bench ezequiel because I've got a strong front eight so I might have the luxury of selling raya and van dijk and just making my defense and my goalkeeper position look a lot more the way I wanted to and obviously selling raya is with the view of freeing up a third arsenal spot to get gabriel along with timber or to get declan rice so yeah van dijk has to go"
Mark McGin declares his intention to sell Virgil van Dijk and David Raya, using his two free transfers to improve his defense and goalkeeper positions. McGin sees this move as an opportunity to create a third Arsenal spot, potentially for Gabriel, and to bring his overall team structure closer to his desired setup.
Resources
External Resources
Books
- "The Intelligent Investor" by Benjamin Graham - Mentioned as a foundational text for understanding value investing principles.
Articles & Papers
- "The Intelligent Investor" (Source not specified) - Referenced for its principles on value investing.
People
- Benjamin Graham - Author of "The Intelligent Investor," foundational figure in value investing.
- James - Mentioned for achieving a high score in the previous gameweek.
- Mike Mahany - Asked a question about transferring Saka to Rice.
- Mr. Manager - Asked a question about captaincy prioritization without Salah or Haaland.
- Nicholas - Asked a question about what to do with Virgil van Dijk.
- Snee - Asked a question about triple Arsenal defense.
- The Cupcake - Asked a question about prioritizing the acquisition of Gabriel.
- Intelligent Goat - Asked a question about whether it is time for Watkins.
- Foot Fan - Asked a question about which Chelsea players to target.
Organizations & Institutions
- Arsenal - Discussed in relation to defense and player acquisitions.
- Bournemouth - Mentioned in the context of Semenyo's potential.
- Brighton - Mentioned as an opponent for Manchester City.
- Burnley - Mentioned as an upcoming opponent for Liverpool and Kouyia.
- Chelsea - Discussed in relation to player form and potential targets.
- Everton - Mentioned as having good fixtures and as a potential destination for Chalobah.
- Fulham - Mentioned in relation to Anderson.
- Leeds - Mentioned as an opponent for Newcastle.
- Liverpool - Discussed in relation to defense and upcoming fixtures.
- Manchester City - Discussed in relation to player form and potential captaincy options.
- Manchester United - Mentioned in relation to Amra and Kouyia.
- Newcaslte - Mentioned in relation to Lewis Hall and Chou.
- Tottenham - Mentioned as an opponent for Bournemouth.
- West Ham - Mentioned as an opponent for Wolves.
- Wolves - Mentioned as an opponent for Chelsea and Liverpool, and in relation to Mahrez.
- Patreon - Mentioned as a platform for additional content and support.
- Fantasy Football Scout - Mentioned as a provider of player statistics.
- Pro Football Focus (PFF) - Mentioned as a data source for player grading.
- NASA - Mentioned humorously in relation to sending Virgil van Dijk away.
- Premier League - The primary league discussed for player performance and strategy.
Websites & Online Resources
- Patreon.com/fplgeneral - Mentioned as a link for more content and support.
- Buymeacoffee.com/fplgeneral - Mentioned as a link to show appreciation for the podcast.
Other Resources
- Gameweek 20 - Reviewed as a past gameweek with significant score swings.
- Gameweek 21 - The upcoming gameweek for which strategies are being discussed.
- FA Cup - Mentioned as a reason for a break in Premier League fixtures.
- Def Con - A metric used to evaluate player performance, particularly for defenders.
- FPL (Fantasy Premier League) - The game around which the discussion is centered.
- Value Investing - A core investment philosophy discussed in relation to "The Intelligent Investor."
- Green Arrow - A term used in FPL to indicate a positive score relative to other managers.
- Auto Sub - A feature in FPL where a substitute automatically comes on if a starting player does not play.
- Captaincy - A key FPL decision regarding which player will score double points.
- Transfers - Player changes made within an FPL team.
- Price Changes - Fluctuations in player values within the FPL game.
- Clean Sheet - Awarded to a team that does not concede any goals in a match.
- Underlying Numbers - Statistical data used to assess player performance beyond basic stats.
- Eye Test - Subjective assessment of player performance based on watching games.
- 4-5-1 Formation - A specific FPL team formation discussed.
- 5-4-1 Formation - A specific FPL team formation discussed.
- 3-5-2 Formation - A specific FPL team formation discussed.
- 4-4-2 Formation - A specific FPL team formation discussed.
- Wildcard - An FPL chip that allows unlimited transfers for one gameweek.