Tech's Incrementalism Hinders Web Breakthroughs, Fails Ecosystems

In this solo episode of the Scripting News podcast, Dave Winer argues that the prevailing mindset in tech--one of incrementalism and a lack of expectation for true breakthroughs--is hindering the development of the web. Winer contends that open-source communities, exemplified by WordPress, often fail to recognize their role within the broader web ecosystem, focusing too narrowly on their own code rather than open formats and protocols. The hidden consequence is a missed opportunity to build a more robust, interconnected web. This conversation is crucial for developers, product makers, and open-source maintainers who want to understand how to foster genuine innovation and build lasting digital infrastructure, offering them a framework for creating truly open and replaceable systems that can gain widespread adoption.

The Echo Chamber of Expectation: Why Tech Has Stopped Believing in Breakthroughs

The tech industry, once a fertile ground for radical innovation, now seems stuck in a rut. Dave Winer, in his solo podcast episode "MacWrite for the web," diagnoses a pervasive lack of expectation for genuine breakthroughs. This isn't just a philosophical observation; it's a product maker's lament. Winer, a veteran of creating foundational software like outliners and presentation tools, notes that his own work, which opened up new possibilities, was often met with disbelief because people simply weren't anticipating such leaps. This mindset, he argues, is a significant missed opportunity for the web, which "desperately needs building."

The core of this problem, Winer suggests, lies in how tech communities, particularly within the open-source space, perceive their own roles. He references Dries Buytaert, founder of Drupal, who emphasized the need for open-source developers to care for their "ecosystems," not just their code. Winer finds this resonates deeply with his observations of WordPress. While a dominant force, he believes the people within the WordPress community don't fully grasp their position within the larger web context. They operate as "many entities at once," rather than a cohesive part of a larger, interconnected system. This introspection, this failure to see the forest for the trees, prevents them from realizing the web's potential.

"I think that basically every product right now in the world is going through exactly, or something very similar to that, question."

This introspection leads to a critical blind spot: the inability to recognize or foster true innovation. Winer contrasts the tech world's apathy towards breakthroughs with fields like medicine, where a new cancer treatment is undeniably significant news. In tech, however, such announcements often fall flat because the industry isn't primed to expect them. Winer's own career is a testament to this. His outliner software, a tool that revolutionized how people structured thoughts, was met with confusion because users were accustomed to the "pain in the ass" of paper outlines. It took a computer's interactive capabilities to unlock its true utility. Similarly, his MORE presentation software was a hit because it addressed a known need--presentations--in an obvious way, aided by the release of the improved Mac Plus.

The Ice-Nine Effect: When a Giant Adopts, the World Follows

Winer illustrates the power of a prominent endorsement in driving adoption and belief with two key examples from his past: the licensing of news photos and the New York Times RSS feed. He recounts securing licenses from Agence France-Presse and the Associated Press for a Ken Burns-style screensaver of news photos. The challenge wasn't the technical feat, but the sheer disbelief from others that he had managed to obtain these rights.

"I don't think anybody believed me that I had those photos. It just couldn't register, 'How does this guy, Dave Winer, get licenses for these things?'"

This disbelief echoes his experience with the New York Times RSS feed. While other smaller news organizations had adopted RSS, it was the Times's participation that acted as the "catalyst that drove the growth of RSS." Winer likens this to Kurt Vonnegut's Ice-nine in Cat's Cradle: a substance so potent that a single drop could freeze the entire world. Once the New York Times, a titan of news, embraced RSS, it became almost a requirement for other news organizations to follow suit. This demonstrates a crucial system dynamic: the adoption of a new protocol or format by a major player can fundamentally shift the landscape, validating the technology and forcing others to adapt. The failure to leverage such moments, or to even anticipate them, is a symptom of the industry's broader malaise.

The Ecosystem Gap: Envy and the Missed Contribution

A significant emotional core of Winer's reflection is envy, specifically directed at the collaborative spirit he observes in the film industry, as exemplified by filmmakers discussing projects on The Rewatchables. He notes how directors and creatives share ideas, talent, and projects, fostering a rich creative environment. Winer questions why he, with a proven track record of "bootstrapping ecosystems," hasn't been able to make his contributions in that capacity without the burden of running a large company.

He sees a parallel failure in the open-source world, particularly with WordPress. Winer feels that while WordPress has been respectful of RSS and even played a role in RSS Cloud (a notification system that makes RSS competitive with modern social media), the community doesn't fully appreciate or nurture the foundational web protocols they depend on. The RSS ecosystem, in particular, has been "abused by the tech industry, never cared for, never loved." This lack of ecosystem care, this failure to actively protect and promote open formats and protocols, is precisely where Winer believes innovation is stifled. The consequence is a web that is less open, less interoperable, and ultimately, less dynamic than it could be.

WordLand: A Blueprint for the Writer's Web

To counter this trend, Winer introduces his project, WordLand, and its underlying API, WP Identity. He positions WordLand as the "MacWrite of the writer's web." Just as MacWrite provided a reference design that showed developers what a word processor could be on the new Macintosh platform, WordLand aims to demonstrate what a writing tool on the modern web looks like. Crucially, it's not designed to be an "everything-app" that would intimidate other developers. Instead, it's a deliberate reference implementation.

The underlying WP Identity API is key. It connects to WordPress via its API but is not bound to it. The goal is to encourage interoperability and the creation of web standards. Winer emphasizes that the IETF requires at least two independent implementations before a protocol can become a standard. By making WP Identity replaceable and usable with other systems that offer similar functionality, WordLand aims to achieve this critical threshold.

"The takeaway: open source isn't enough. You have to protect open formats and protocols, use only web protocols, and make every part replaceable -- and if you want anyone to believe that, you'd better have already replaced them yourself."

This initiative directly addresses the systemic issue Winer identifies: the need to protect open formats and protocols, use only web protocols, and ensure every component is replaceable. This is not just about writing software; it's about building a sustainable, open web infrastructure. The immediate payoff is a clearer vision for developers, but the delayed, lasting advantage is the potential for a truly open and interoperable web standard, built by a community that actively cares for its ecosystem.

Key Action Items

• Immediate Action (This Quarter):

  • Engage with foundational web protocols: Actively seek out and understand protocols like RSS and their underlying principles, rather than relying solely on platform-specific APIs.
  • Prioritize Interoperability: When building new features or products, explicitly design for interoperability with other systems, even if it requires more upfront effort.
  • Adopt a "Replaceable Components" Mindset: Scrutinize your own software architecture. Can key components be swapped out? If not, plan for how they could be.

• Short-Term Investment (Next 3-6 Months):

  • Explore Reference Implementations: Consider creating or contributing to reference implementations of open formats or protocols, similar to WordLand, to guide development and demonstrate possibilities.
  • Foster Cross-Community Collaboration: Initiate or participate in hackathons or projects that require collaboration between developers from different organizations or projects, focusing on interop.

• Long-Term Investment (6-18 Months and Beyond):

  • Champion Open Formats and Protocols: Advocate within your organization and community for the use and protection of open formats and protocols over proprietary solutions, especially for core functionalities.
  • Build for Ecosystem Health: Actively contribute to the health and growth of the broader ecosystem your product or service exists within. This means not just shipping code, but supporting standards, fostering community, and ensuring long-term viability.
  • Seek "Disbelieved" Opportunities: Look for problems that others dismiss as impossible or don't even recognize as problems, as these are often the fertile ground for genuine breakthroughs and lasting competitive advantage. This requires patience, as the payoff for such endeavors is often delayed.