NFL Team Tiers: Rebuilds, Cap Cleanup, and Contention Outlooks
TL;DR
- The Dolphins' lack of physicality, particularly in short-yardage situations and their reliance on passing plays like pistol formations, led to their physical overwhelm by the Steelers, reinforcing a perception of the Dolphins as a "soft" team in cold weather.
- The Saints, Browns, and Dolphins are in the "multi-year cap cleanup" tier, burdened by significant, ugly contracts that will hamper their ability to contend and require difficult roster decisions for years to come.
- The Vikings, Cardinals, and Colts are in "the start of the rebuild" tier, characterized by a lack of a clear franchise quarterback, necessitating a multi-year process to strip down and rebuild their rosters.
- The third wild card spot has been a positive addition to the NFL, rewarding teams like the Texans and Packers for maintaining competitiveness despite injuries and allowing more deserving teams into the playoff mix.
- The NFL should implement a "Most Improved Player" award to recognize significant player development beyond linear progression, distinguishing it from "Comeback Player of the Year" and acknowledging players like Geno Smith or Al Quadin Muhammad.
- The Steelers-Ravens Week 18 game may be meaningless because the Ravens are unlikely to win their next two games against the Patriots and Packers, and neither team is considered playoff-caliber.
- The 2027 NFL Draft class is exceptionally talented, featuring elite prospects like Jeremiah Smith (WR) and Colin Simmons (EDGE), potentially overshadowing even highly-touted quarterbacks like Arch Manning.
Deep Dive
The 2023 NFL season has revealed significant team trajectories, with some poised for immediate contention and others facing multi-year rebuilds, a stark contrast that will reshape playoff landscapes and team-building strategies. This analysis categorizes teams based on their proximity to contention, highlighting the critical role of quarterback development, cap management, and strategic roster construction in determining future success.
Teams are broadly divided into tiers: those needing "multi-year cap cleanup," those at the "start of the rebuild," those "already into the rebuild," those "looks a lot different with the franchise quarterback," those a "home run off season away," and finally, those "right back to contending." The "multi-year cap cleanup" tier, including the Saints, Browns, and Dolphins, faces significant financial hurdles due to bloated contracts, particularly Tua Tagovailoa's, which will hamper their ability to acquire new talent and necessitate difficult roster decisions. Conversely, teams like the Titans and Panthers are further along in their rebuilds, having already shed veteran contracts and are now focused on talent acquisition and quarterback development, though uncertainty around their current signal-callers remains.
The "start of the rebuild" tier, featuring the Raiders and Jets, acknowledges a need for significant overhauls, with a focus on acquiring foundational quarterbacks and building around them over a three-year timeline. The Jets, in particular, are positioned to make a significant move for a top quarterback prospect due to their ample draft capital. A critical emerging theme is the "looks a lot different with the franchise quarterback" tier, encompassing the Vikings, Cardinals, and Colts, where team success hinges on finding a consistent, high-caliber quarterback. The Vikings are considered closest to this goal due to their established supporting cast and developmental infrastructure, while the Cardinals and Colts face more extensive rebuilding phases due to coaching staff uncertainty and quarterback contract situations, respectively.
The "home run off season away" tier, including the Falcons, Commanders, Cowboys, Bengals, and Giants, suggests these teams possess enough young talent and identifiable holes to make significant leaps with strong offseason moves, particularly in the draft and free agency. The Giants are highlighted as a team with considerable upside if they can secure a quality right tackle and another impactful receiver to complement their existing talent. Finally, the "right back to contending" tier, featuring the Lions, Chiefs, and Ravens, indicates teams with established core talent and franchise quarterbacks that should remain in playoff contention, with the Ravens facing potential defensive line concerns if key players do not recover from injuries. The analysis also touches on the debate surrounding the third wild card spot, with differing views on its impact on playoff purity versus expanding opportunities, and highlights the evolving landscape of quarterback evaluation for upcoming drafts, with prospects like Fernando Mendoza and Dante Moore entering the conversation for the 2026 draft, and the intriguing 2027 class featuring Arch Manning and Jeremiah Smith.
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Key Quotes
"The Steelers physically overwhelmed the team. I think when you sort of look at what the Steelers want to be, it's the second half version of Pittsburgh with aaron rodgers, sort of just again, sort of dinking and dunking, and not in a derogatory way in some cases, but you have the yards after the catch from DK Metcalf, you have Kenneth Gainwell running hard, even though there's a lot of Kenneth Gainwell in this game, but that is the peak of what the Steelers want to be: physicality, yards after the catch, and then overwhelm you on that side of the ball physically and allow the defense to go and win with the pass rush."
JP Acosta explains that the Steelers' victory was characterized by their physical dominance, which he identifies as the team's ideal performance. Acosta highlights specific plays and player contributions that exemplify this peak performance, emphasizing how their physicality and pass rush overwhelmed the Dolphins.
"I mean, the pick that Tua threw in that game, which was just, I mean, an absolute quail of a pass into, you know, a rolled a flat corner who's just fallen right underneath the route, a gross throw to Asante Samuel Jr. to extend his or to extend his league-leading interception total to 15. But there was, it was just, it was a hilarious sequence because from midway in the second quarter, Tua has, I believe it was 7:46 left, Tua hits DeVante Adams on like a scramble out to his left. It was zero zero at this point in time, 24-yard gain. They get into scoring range. I believe they went three straight runs from there to kick a field goal. He had four drop backs after his next four drop backs, the score was 28 to 3. And those four drop backs were a check down, a sack, a dropped interception, and then a sack. I mean, it was classic Tua when it matters most in a cold weather game not showing up."
JP Acosta criticizes Tua Tagovailoa's performance in the game, pointing to a specific interception and a series of unproductive offensive plays as evidence of his struggles. Acosta contrasts Tua's performance with an earlier successful play, illustrating a significant drop-off in effectiveness when the game situation became critical, particularly in cold weather.
"I think when you look at all of the, like, five elite quarterbacks in the NFL, you could argue Justin Herbert has had the highest degree of difficulty out of all five of them for the entire, for their entire careers. You don't have the receiver core that Joe Burrow has, you don't have the play calling that Lamar Jackson or Patrick Mahomes has had for most of their careers, you don't have the offensive line that, well, this season, you don't have the offensive line that a lot of Josh Allen has."
Mike Renner argues that Justin Herbert faces the most challenging circumstances among elite NFL quarterbacks due to a lack of consistent support. Renner contrasts Herbert's situation with those of other top quarterbacks, citing deficiencies in receiving talent, play-calling, and offensive line stability as factors contributing to his increased degree of difficulty.
"I think the N.F.L. needs one because growth isn't linear. You don't go from, like, you don't go from, you know, the sometimes the constant trend of keep being like, you go from rookie to pretty good to really good to great. Sometimes you take that big jump, and I think there's a lot of guys that should be considered for most improved player."
JP Acosta advocates for the creation of a "Most Improved Player" award in the NFL, explaining that player development is not always a steady progression. Acosta believes such an award would recognize significant leaps in performance that current awards do not capture, highlighting that many players make substantial improvements that warrant recognition.
"I think the N.F.L. needs one because growth isn't linear. You don't go from, like, you don't go from, you know, the sometimes the constant trend of keep being like, you go from rookie to pretty good to really good to great. Sometimes you take that big jump, and I think there's a lot of guys that should be considered for most improved player."
JP Acosta advocates for the creation of a "Most Improved Player" award in the NFL, explaining that player development is not always a steady progression. Acosta believes such an award would recognize significant leaps in performance that current awards do not capture, highlighting that many players make substantial improvements that warrant recognition.
"I think the N.F.L. needs one because growth isn't linear. You don't go from, like, you don't go from, you know, the sometimes the constant trend of keep being like, you go from rookie to pretty good to really good to great. Sometimes you take that big jump, and I think there's a lot of guys that should be considered for most improved player."
JP Acosta advocates for the creation of a "Most Improved Player" award in the NFL, explaining that player development is not always a steady progression. Acosta believes such an award would recognize significant leaps in performance that current awards do not capture, highlighting that many players make substantial improvements that warrant recognition.
Resources
External Resources
Books
- "The Art of War" by Sun Tzu - Mentioned as a foundational text for strategic thinking.
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- "The Art of War" (Sun Tzu) - Mentioned as a foundational text for strategic thinking.
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- Sun Tzu - Author of "The Art of War."
Other Resources
- The Art of War - Mentioned as a foundational text for strategic thinking.