Voter Identity Trumps Ideology: Democrats' Real Election Battle

Resources

Resources & Recommendations

Books

• "Neither Liberal Nor Conservative" by Donald Kinder and Nathan Kalmo (2017) - This book found that people generally do not think about politics in the same ideological terms as strategists, suggesting that the average person is not as ideological as often assumed.

Research & Studies

• 2018 paper by Michael Barber and Jeremy Pope - This paper found that conservative Trump voters would become significantly more likely to support a liberal policy if they were told Trump supported it, indicating that identity and who controls the government matter more than issue positions.
• Paper by Andy Hall at Stanford - This paper initially concluded that moderates perform better in elections, but its findings were later retracted.
• Retraction by Andrew Hall and Daniel Thompson (March 2025) - This retraction stated that their original analysis on whether ideologically extreme or moderate House primary candidates performed better was "far weaker than they previously thought" and should not be relied upon.
• Polling data by Associated Press-NORC - This polling found that 58% of the public views the Democratic Party unfavorably and 51% views the Republican Party unfavorably, indicating widespread dissatisfaction with both parties.
• Model by G. Elliott Morris and Mark Rakei - This model analyzed data on how Democratic congressional candidates fared in their districts, finding that the "moderation bonus" was only about a point to a point and a half, suggesting moderation is not a silver bullet for winning elections.

People Mentioned

• G. Elliott Morris (Journalist, Statistician, and writer of the newsletter "Strength in Numbers") - Referenced for his statistical analysis on the value of moderation in elections and for his model co-developed with Mark Rakei.
• Mark Rakei (Data Scientist) - Co-developed a model with G. Elliott Morris that analyzed how Democratic congressional candidates fared in their districts.
• Michael Barber (Author of 2018 paper) - Co-authored a paper that explored how voters' support for policies can be influenced by who they believe supports those policies.
• Jeremy Pope (Author of 2018 paper) - Co-authored a paper that explored how voters' support for policies can be influenced by who they believe supports those policies.
• Andy Hall (Political Scientist at Stanford) - Authored a paper that initially concluded moderates do better, but later retracted those findings.
• Daniel Thompson (Political Scientist) - Co-authored a retraction of earlier findings regarding the performance of moderate versus extreme candidates.
• Philip Converse (Researcher) - His 1964 research found that only about 10% of the public could place policy positions into ideological categories and describe their meaning.
• Donald Kinder (Author of "Neither Liberal Nor Conservative") - Co-authored a book that found people generally do not think about politics in ideological terms.
• Nathan Kalmo (Author of "Neither Liberal Nor Conservative") - Co-authored a book that found people generally do not think about politics in ideological terms.
• H. L. Mencken (Writer) - An old quote from him ("There's always a well-known solution to every problem--neat, plausible, and wrong.") was referenced in the debate about the Democratic Party's strategy.
• Elaine Kamarck (Original DLC leader) - Quoted in a New York Times article about Bill Clinton's political strategy, particularly his approach to welfare reform.

Organizations & Institutions

• Third Way (Center-left think tank) - This organization promotes moderate policies and published a report and a memo on language to be avoided by Democrats.
• Democratic Leadership Council (DLC) - A group that was instrumental in shaping Bill Clinton's moderate "New Democrat" platform.

Websites & Online Resources

• "Strength in Numbers" (Newsletter by G. Elliott Morris) - G. Elliott Morris's publication where he shares his statistical analysis.

Other Resources

• "Deciding to Win" (Report by the Welcome Pack) - This report, published by a center-left group, looked at polling data and concluded that Democrats could win by moving more to the moderate center.
• "Was it Something I Said" (Memo by Third Way) - This memo listed 45 phrases that Democrats should avoid using in public, such as "pregnant people" and "Latinx."
• "Start Here" (Daily podcast from ABC News hosted by Brad Milky) - A daily news podcast that covers top stories in politics, culture, and more.