Populism's Stagnant Economy and Eroding Institutions

Resources

Books

• "The Dawn Bush and Edwards book" - This book was mentioned as picking a couple of cases from the 60s and 70s in Latin America to illustrate populists coming in, triggering a fiscal policy boom, and then facing crises.

Research & Studies

• A paper by Christoph Trebesch from Kiel Institute on the impact of populist politicians on the economy - This paper was the central focus of the discussion, analyzing the definition, classification, and economic effects of populist leaders.
• Existing datasets of political scientists who have coded populism using textual analysis of speeches - These datasets were mentioned as an alternative approach to identifying populist leaders.
• Workhorse definition in political science for populism - This definition describes a politician with a clear establishment versus the elite agenda and rhetoric, separating the population into "evil corrupt elites" and "true honest people."
• Event studies and classic panel regressions (e.g., Stockton and Watson) - These methods were used to analyze the performance of governments, comparing Republican versus Democratic governments.
• Local projections with inverse propensity weighting - This methodological step was used to predict populists coming to power and overweight observations that were harder to predict by crisis or recession.
• Synthetic control method - This method was used to address the problem of establishing a credible counterfactual for comparing countries with and without populist leaders.
• Placebo tests (simulating artificial assignment of populist entry or treatment to different countries) - These tests were conducted to check the robustness of the findings.
• Nobel Prize-winning research on institutions and economic growth - This research was referenced to highlight the importance of institutions in economic performance.

People Mentioned

• Christoph Trebesch (Kiel Institute) - The speaker and author of the discussed paper on populism's economic impact.
• William Jennings Bryan - Mentioned as a historical example of a populist.
• Mussolini - Mentioned as a historical example of a populist.
• Ronald Reagan - Mentioned as a politician who used some populist rhetoric but was not considered a core populist strategist in the paper's definition.
• George W. Bush - Mentioned as a politician who used some populist rhetoric.
• Barack Obama - Mentioned as a politician who used some populist rhetoric.
• Erdogan - Mentioned as an example of a populist leader whose tenure is associated with economic stagnation and erosion of democratic institutions.
• Silvio Berlusconi - Mentioned as one of the first populists to come to power in a big industrial G7 country.
• Boris Johnson - Mentioned as a populist leader in the UK.
• Donald Trump - Mentioned as a populist leader in the US.
• Bill Clinton - Mentioned in the context of the neoliberal policy order.
• Goldwater - Mentioned in relation to Ronald Reagan's political lineage.
• Tess Vigeland - Host of "The Pie" podcast.

Organizations & Institutions

• Kiel Institute - Affiliation of Christoph Trebesch.
• University of Chicago Podcast Network - Producer of "The Pie" podcast.
• NPR - Mentioned as the former employer of Tess Vigeland.
• International Monetary Fund (IMF) - Mentioned as an entity that left-wing populists rally against.

Websites & Online Resources

• The Pie (University of Chicago Podcast Network) - A podcast recommended to listeners.

Other Resources

• The Big Literature Approach - The method used by the researchers to identify populist politicians by scanning and digitizing literature with "populists" or "populism" in the title.
• The concept of "establishment vs. elite" rhetoric - A core component of the definition of populism used in the research.
• The concept of "us vs. them" rhetoric - A key strategy of populists identified in the research.
• Left-wing populists - Defined as those emphasizing economic disparities and rallying against financial elites.
• Right-wing populists - Defined as those focusing on cultural and ethnic disparities.
• Neoliberal assumptions - Policy assumptions that the speaker argues have been broadly agreed upon across administrations since Reagan or Clinton, including free trade, open borders, and a muscular foreign policy.
• Great Society and New Deal - Historical policy frameworks that Ronald Reagan's policies were seen as a break from.