AI Yard Vision, Peptides, Prediction Markets, and Surrogacy Matching

Key Quotes

"I think the solution like we do have an affordability crisis no question but the solution is not to induce demand because if you induce demand what happens you have the same fixed amount of properties you're just making prices go up so the solution is creating more supply like making it easier to permit like all this kind of reform to build more housing make it make it cheaper to build housing."

Sheel Mohnot argues that the housing affordability crisis should be addressed by increasing supply rather than stimulating demand. Mohnot explains that inducing demand, such as through extended mortgage terms, leads to higher prices because the number of available properties remains fixed. He suggests that policy reforms focused on easier permitting and reduced construction costs are the true solutions to making housing more affordable.

"I think all of that stuff a lot of that stuff is super automatable and i think the big unlock is actually ai voice like i think a lot of people are sleeping on how good ai voice is already today and how useful it would be for something like this actually yesterday or the day before bill ackman posted something about elon musk and i'm not sure if this was ai or not and like the three of us are like are you fucking kidding me it's obviously ai what was it it was a fake video about elon musk and it was so obviously fake it like didn't have his mannerisms or anything and it was like talking slowly it was kind of his voice kind of not but the fact that bill ackman i don't know how old how old he is maybe 60 he couldn't tell or he was like i'm not sure if this is ai so that means that ai voice is already good enough if bill ackman's fooled by this video then like a lot of people are fooled by ai voice so already these service providers should have should be having ai voice do the work for them and i think it's already good enough and it's just going to get better in the next year so i think instead of a contractor hiring an office manager you give them an ai office manager for like a few hundred bucks a month and it's actually you you might think of it as a money saving thing but it's actually not it's more than that it's like you have super fast response time people responding round the clock like i whatever when i decided to do this backyard remodel was like a sunday afternoon and nobody's responding to me then but like the first person to respond is way more likely to get the job than the next person and the person after that so like you respond super fast there's no missed calls you text to follow up like it does all that stuff for you in a super easy app."

Sheel Mohnot suggests that AI voice technology can automate many tasks for service businesses, acting as an "AI office manager." Mohnot highlights that the current capabilities of AI voice are already sufficient to fool even discerning individuals, indicating its potential for rapid response times and round-the-clock availability. He believes this technology can significantly improve customer acquisition for contractors by ensuring prompt communication, which is a critical factor in securing jobs.

"The problem is the problem with this business idea is they're not legal or they're they're legal for research purposes they're not approved for the applications that people are using them for that's right so i don't know where the opportunity is here but it's like really complicated to use them and like in san francisco everyone's doing it so your friends are doing it and they're like oh i got this peptide and it's been so great for me or whatever and of course like there are challenges in it not being fda approved but i think for the most part these are things that people have been using for years and and have some sense of efficacy on but um you know people are getting semaglutide like ozempic and a and uh and other ozempic like things uh via peptides and so a lot of people right now longevity is a huge opportunity you've seen like function health and superpower and others do really well there so there's a ton of ton of interest but the experience i've had with peptides is confusing and sketchy so i actually haven't i haven't tried them yet but i've tons of friends who are talking about it so i feel like there's some educational opportunity there's some like dosing guidance safety some high trust supply chain and coaching opportunity in this space but i don't know what it is and the fda approval thing obviously is a big problem interesting so you're saying maybe right now because the legality and the approval part of selling the things directly is sketch you would build the biggest most trusted information source so that when the time comes that this becomes more clear you either become the highest value affiliate or you yourself could start to to deal some deal peptides."

Sheel Mohnot identifies an opportunity in the peptide market, noting its popularity for longevity and other applications despite not being FDA-approved for general use. Mohnot explains that the current landscape is confusing and "sketchy," presenting challenges related to legality and efficacy. He suggests that a business could focus on providing trusted information, dosing guidance, safety protocols, and supply chain integrity, positioning itself as a valuable resource or affiliate partner as the regulatory environment evolves.

"I think books are a waste of time for me I think books are a waste of time so I haven't this is I haven't read a book in like 15 years and I think it's very very contrarian opinion but I think like I have so many friends that are authors that I talk to that are just like trying to get the words out but if you like listen to a podcast it's like one podcast by that author is at least 80 of the value of the book and so is it worth spending another five hours reading to get the additional 20 in my mind no so that's my that's my provocative statement it is the first thing I do when there's a book I'm interested in I go to YouTube and I just look for a talk by the author and if they're not interesting in the first 15 minutes of that YouTube video the book is definitely not going to be interesting the book will probably have more you know it's not going to be fully sufficient but if you can't do if you can't give a good talk you probably don't have a good book."

Sheel Mohnot expresses a contrarian view that books are a waste of time for him, stating he has not read a book in 15 years. Mohnot believes that listening to a podcast featuring an author provides approximately 80% of the book's value, making the additional time spent reading for the remaining 20% unnecessary. He prefers to find YouTube talks by authors, asserting that if an author cannot present their ideas engagingly in a short talk, the book is unlikely to be compelling.

"I think prediction marketplaces are a good one it's obviously not just a san francisco thing but it's a kind of business that like I probably would not have funded when these companies got funded I would say like this is never gonna work it's gonna be highly illegal