American Civil War: Political Violence and Societal Breakdown

Making Sense with Sam Harris - Invalid feed · October 31, 2025 · Listen to Original Episode →

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Resources

"The Next Civil War: Dispatches from the American Future" by Stephen Marsh - This book explores plausible scenarios for a civil war in the 21st century United States, based on political and decline models, and interviews with various groups.

"Civil War" (film) - Mentioned as an entertaining but perhaps journalistically inaccurate depiction of a civil war, though emotionally resonant.

Pete Priyo's models of civil war - Used as a basis for understanding and projecting potential civil war scenarios in the book.
Study out of India on Muslim spending power and Hindu violence - Presented as an example of how rising economic parity can correlate with increased violence, reflecting a broader aspect of human nature.
Robert Putnam's research on declining social trust - Discussed in relation to the erosion of trust in institutions.
CIA threat multiplier concept - Used to describe how various stressors (economic, political, social) combine to increase risk.
Psychological studies on personality traits in four regions of the US - Used as a basis for a hypothetical partition map.

TikTok - Mentioned as a platform where political figures are creating content instead of governing.

"The Next Civil War" (magazine article) - The initial piece written by Stephen Marsh in 2018 that served as the foundation for his book.

Stephen Miller - His eulogy at the Charlie Kirk memorial was described as "unhinged."
Laura Loomer - Mentioned as a figure who might be involved in rewriting the constitution in a hypothetical scenario.
Steve Bannon - Mentioned as a figure who might be involved in rewriting the constitution in a hypothetical scenario.
Newt Gingrich - Referenced for his long-standing partisan view of politics.
Richard Spencer - Interviewed by the host in 2016, he spoke about the "myth of the Second World War" dying.
Pritzker - Mentioned in the context of California's potential options due to the fading constitutional order.
Newsom - Mentioned in the context of California's potential options due to the fading constitutional order.

The Atlantic - Marsh has written cover stories and features for this publication.
The New Yorker - Marsh has written cover stories and features for this publication.
The New York Times - Marsh has written cover stories and features for this publication.
Esquire - Marsh was a columnist for this magazine for many years and studied pop culture for them.
The FBI - Mentioned in the context of how they might categorize political murders, especially under Trump administration control.
The CDC - Mentioned in the context of states forming their own de facto national health authority.
The Supreme Court - Mentioned as an institution whose trust has eroded and is being rapidly dismantled.
The CIA - Mentioned in relation to their concept of "threat multipliers."
The Taliban - Used as an example of a group that grows when suppressed.
The Troubles in Ireland - Used as a potential best-case scenario for political violence in the US.
Syria - Used as a potential worst-case scenario for political violence in the US.
The IRS - Implicitly referenced in the discussion of property taxes and government overreach.

Whole society defense (Finland's strategy with Russia) - Presented as a model Canada might adopt.

Twitter - Elon Musk's tweet about the left being the party of murder was mentioned.

Sovereign citizenry - Mentioned as a belief system within the anti-government patriot movement.
Antifa - Discussed as a left-wing group, though not comparable in capacity for violence to right-wing extremist groups.
Portland CHAZ - Mentioned as an example of organized left-wing groups with aspirations to overthrow the prison system.
Maga cult - Referenced in the context of lawmakers' fear of impeachment.
January 6th protesters - Described as considering themselves political prisoners.