Strategic FPL Planning--Captaincy, Chips, and Long-Term Value
TL;DR
- Prioritizing captaincy on Mohamed Salah or Bukayo Saka over Erling Haaland for Gameweek 18 offers a differential advantage due to Saka's favorable home fixture against Wolves and potential for higher returns without the pressure of Haaland's ownership.
- Utilizing a Free Hit chip in Gameweek 18 is recommended for teams needing significant squad overhauls, enabling the acquisition of high-impact players like Cole Palmer and Tariq Lamptey without long-term team value concerns.
- Keeping Thiago Alcântara in Fantasy Premier League teams is a reasonable strategy, as his consistent minutes and penalty potential outweigh the immediate appeal of newer, potentially less secure options like Evan Ferguson.
- Investing in a triple-up on Everton's defense for Gameweek 18 against Burnley presents a high-upside differential play, offering potential for clean sheets and attacking returns from Keane, Tarkowski, and Pickford.
- Saving Fantasy Premier League chips like the Wildcard and Free Hit for Blank and Double Gameweeks later in the season maximizes their strategic impact, offering greater point-scoring potential than early usage.
- While early transfers can build team value, the current frequency of price changes necessitates a careful risk assessment, balancing potential gains against the possibility of player injuries or unexpected fixture shifts.
- Investing in a budget midfielder like Facundo Buonanotte at 5.2 million is a viable short-term punt due to his expected 90 minutes and favorable fixtures, offering a cost-effective alternative to more expensive options.
Deep Dive
The core argument of this FPL (Fantasy Premier League) analysis is that while popular captaincy choices like Haaland and Saka are viable for Gameweek 18, strategic differentiation and proactive planning for future fixtures are crucial for success. The implications extend beyond immediate point-scoring, influencing long-term team structure, chip usage, and transfer efficiency by highlighting how seemingly minor decisions can compound over the season.
The analysis delves into captaincy, presenting Haaland and Saka as the primary options for Gameweek 18. While Haaland against Forest away is deemed "perfectly fine," the fixture is not considered a "no-brainer" compared to easier matchups. Saka against Wolves at home is presented as a more differential, tempting option due to the favorable fixture and his likely involvement. The implication is that while safety with Haaland is acceptable, taking a calculated risk on Saka could offer a competitive edge.
A significant portion of the discussion focuses on the Free Hit chip, emphasizing its utility for Gameweek 18 or 19. A sample Free Hit draft highlights the trade-offs involved in building a balanced team, particularly the need for "enablers" like Enzo La Fee to accommodate more expensive, high-impact players such as Haaland and Saka. The draft's defensive triple-up on Everton and the inclusion of differential assets like Freenpong and Cole Palmer illustrate a strategy of leveraging short-term opportunities and high-potential players for a single gameweek, with the implication that such gambles are acceptable when the chip negates long-term consequences.
Beyond immediate transfers, the podcast addresses longer-term strategic considerations. The decision to keep Thiago despite his recent form is framed as a reasoned choice against a knee-jerk reaction, emphasizing that his underlying role and fixture potential still hold value. The comparison between Eddie Nketiah and Hwang Hee-chan (Cunha) suggests that while Nketiah might be preferable for the immediate two gameweeks, Cunha's long-term fixture run makes him a more attractive prospect. This underscores the importance of evaluating players not just on current form but on their upcoming schedule.
Furthermore, the advice on saving the second Wildcard chip for blank and double gameweeks highlights a critical second-order implication: proactive planning for schedule disruptions can yield greater returns than using the chip early for perceived immediate gains. The discussion on early transfers due to rapid price changes suggests a strategic tension between capturing team value and risking player injuries, implying that while team value is beneficial, it should not supersede a well-considered transfer plan.
The takeaway is that successful FPL management requires a nuanced approach that balances immediate tactical advantages with long-term strategic foresight. Players who can identify differential opportunities, prudently manage their chips, and resist impulsive transfers based on short-term fluctuations are best positioned to navigate the complexities of the season and maximize their overall points.
Action Items
- Audit captaincy choices: Analyze Haaland vs. Saka for Game Week 18, considering fixture difficulty and ownership differential.
- Evaluate Free Hit strategy: Draft a team for Game Week 18, prioritizing high-upside differentials and enablers to maximize value.
- Assess defender value: Compare Van Dijk and Freenpong for short-term FPL gains, factoring in injury risks and potential minutes.
- Track midfielder performance: Monitor Enzo Fernandez's minutes and penalty duties in relation to Cole Palmer's availability and upcoming fixtures.
- Plan chip usage: Save second Wildcard and Free Hit for blank and double game weeks, prioritizing their strategic impact over early use.
Key Quotes
"so captaincy this week i think for most people it's probably down to just two players so it's haaland against forest away or it's saka against wolves at home as always if you want to go for a slightly different pick and take a punt that's absolutely fine if saka is fit and available he's not terrible against brighton at home may well take the next penalty ahead of ødegaard if you wanted to go for verts from liverpool instead of saka that's also okay"
The author, Andy, identifies the primary captaincy choices for Gameweek 18 as Haaland or Saka. He suggests that while Haaland is a safe pick against Forest away, Saka against Wolves at home presents a tempting alternative, especially if fit and available, noting that Saka might take penalties over Ødegaard. Andy also mentions Verts as a potential option, highlighting his potential for bonus points similar to Bruno Fernandes.
"if you've got saka though it must be pretty tempting to captain him one because it's wolves at home two because you know his minutes have to be good three he's had a rest from the previous game as well so he's going to start absolutely and he'll probably play 80 plus minutes and wolves is just such a good fixture and also not everybody is going to own saka this week even though it will feel like they do and even if people do own him lots of people will be afraid to take the captain's armband off of haaland"
Andy elaborates on why captaining Saka is appealing for Gameweek 18. He emphasizes the favorable home fixture against Wolves, the certainty of Saka's starting minutes and likely extended playtime, and the advantage of him being rested. Andy also points out that despite Saka's popularity, many managers may hesitate to remove the captaincy from Haaland, making Saka a more differential captaincy choice.
"for those of us playing fpl for the first time how bad is it to need or want to use the second wild card early should the plan generally be to save it for a big pivotal moment and make sure to hold free transfers for smaller issues instead essentially in the second half of the season we will get blank and double game weeks caused by cup competitions"
The speaker addresses the question of using the second wildcard early in Fantasy Premier League. They explain that blank and double Gameweeks, often caused by cup competitions, are significant events in the second half of the season. The general advice is to save the wildcard for these pivotal moments to effectively manage teams with fewer fixtures or extra fixtures.
"so with the price changes happening at a crazy frequency is it time to change strategy and make early transfers i do agree that at the moment price changes feel quite crazy there's a huge amount of happening and they're happening extremely quickly and it hasn't been helped by the fact we all got given five free transfers"
Andy acknowledges the current rapid and frequent price changes in FPL, noting that this has been exacerbated by managers having five free transfers. He agrees that price changes feel "crazy" and are happening very quickly. This observation sets up a discussion about whether this necessitates a change in transfer strategy.
"so what are your thoughts on alcaraz instead of grealish i can see why people are looking at him he's only 5 2 million and his minutes should be quite good in the short term and the fixtures are great as well so it's burnley away forest away brentford at home wolves at home next four the problem with bringing him in is we're not quite sure at the time of recording how long juesbury hall is out for so therefore you don't know how long alcaraz is going to be an option for"
Andy discusses the potential of Alcaraz as a budget option, noting his low price and seemingly good short-term fixtures. However, he raises a significant concern: the uncertainty surrounding the duration of Jésper Juelsgård's injury. This uncertainty directly impacts how long Alcaraz is likely to be a guaranteed starter, making him a risky proposition despite his appealing price and schedule.
"so i can't remember exactly who asked this but i've seen it come up a couple of times so let's go through it now if we were saving triple captain for bruno fernandez in game week 19 who should we use it on instead now if you want to use it on erling harland i would just go this week because it's forest away in 18 sunderland away in 19 i don't think there's too much to split those fixtures in terms of difficulty"
The speaker addresses a question about alternative Triple Captaincy options if Bruno Fernandes is no longer a viable target for Gameweek 19. They suggest that if Erling Haaland is the desired option, it would be better to use the chip in Gameweek 18 against Forest away, as the fixture against Sunderland away in Gameweek 19 is not significantly easier. This advice prioritizes using the chip while Haaland is fit and available.
Resources
External Resources
Books
- "The 340B Hospital Markup Program" - Mentioned in relation to how hospitals mark up discounted drugs and pocket the difference.
Articles & Papers
- "340bmarkup.org" - Referenced as a source to learn more about how hospitals abuse the 340B program.
Websites & Online Resources
- verbo.com - Mentioned as a platform to book monthly stays and save money on warm getaways.
- blinds.com - Referenced for DIY window treatments with design consultation, samples, and shipping.
- blueapron.com - Discussed for meal kits, pre-made meals, and one-pan meals, with an offer for new customers.
- blueapron.com/terms - Mentioned for terms and conditions related to Blue Apron offers.
- podcastchoices.com/adchoices - Referenced for information regarding ad choices.
- libertymutual.com - Mentioned for customizing car insurance and saving money.
- turbotax.com - Referenced for tax preparation services where experts handle taxes.
Other Resources
- Fantasy Premier League (FPL) - The primary context of the discussion, involving team selection, transfers, chips, and player analysis.
- Carabao Cup - Mentioned in relation to potential blank game weeks caused by teams reaching the final.
- FA Cup - Mentioned in relation to potential blank game weeks caused by teams reaching certain stages.
- Premier League - The league in which Fantasy Premier League is played.
- Bundesliga 2 - Mentioned in relation to Etebo's penalty record in the previous season.