US Military Intervention in Venezuela Signals Shift in Risk Appetite

Key Quotes

"well you know he he had been a very controversial leader for some time i was uh on a trip to south america with the the last chairman of the joint chiefs not the one that's there now and uh and during that trip the head of southern command had actually uh called him you know a dictator back then in chile which had a very left leaning government and and he was seen as a dictator there too um and so uh maduro had been quite controversial even among the left in latin america because of the fact that you know his last election victory was was widely condemned by international organizations as being fraudulent"

Phil Stewart explains that Nicolás Maduro was considered controversial even by left-leaning governments in Latin America due to widespread condemnation of his last election victory as fraudulent. Stewart highlights that this perception of Maduro as a dictator predated recent events and was noted by high-ranking military officials.

"and for a state that calls itself a democracy it's quite an indictment that there have been you know no public acts of celebration actually yesterday uh i was watching uh you know regional television television in colombia i used to i used to be based in colombia so i'm watching one of the tv channels i used to watch when i was there and they were talking about people who are being arrested for posting anti maduro uh uh material on social media after his captures so people posted things on social media and they were arrested"

Phil Stewart points out the lack of public celebration in Venezuela following Maduro's capture, which he views as an indictment of the country's democratic claims. Stewart notes that people were arrested for posting anti-Maduro material on social media, indicating a climate of fear and restricted freedom of expression under his government.

"we broke a story that talked about how the military had developed a regime change option for venezuela uh that story ran on november 21st um and at that point we we wrote that they were kind of pivoting to this new phase of operations that would start with covert operations"

Phil Stewart reveals that Reuters reported on a "regime change option" for Venezuela developed by the military in November. Stewart states that this story indicated a shift towards a new operational phase that would commence with covert actions.

"i mean i've heard uh someone describe it as as an operation that was even more complicated than the bin laden operation uh partly due to the weather uh you know in the fact that you're coming off the sea and there's a lot of unstable air so you're coming in with with helos off the sea you know uh you know around 150 aircraft were involved in this thing because they they didn't just come in they used all kinds of effects uh beforehand to black out part of the city and and kill comms and knock out air defenses and knock out all the kind of threats that that they could you know preemptively uh deal with"

Phil Stewart describes the operation to capture Maduro as exceptionally complex, even more so than the Bin Laden operation, citing challenging weather conditions and the extensive use of aircraft. Stewart explains that the operation involved preemptive measures such as blacking out the city, disrupting communications, and neutralizing air defenses to mitigate threats.

"i think that what what what we're you know as journalists what we're trying to do is we're trying to make sense of this too because you know nobody's seen anything quite like this right and so you know we the closest thing is noriega and and and that's actually a different situation for a lot of reasons that we don't have to get into so you know what we're doing is we're looking at like the national security strategy that the white house issued which says you know which says basically that the monroe doctrine you know this idea that that the that the hemisphere is kind of america's backyard and that the us will um you know look after it as such you know and protect its interests there"

Phil Stewart discusses the difficulty journalists face in understanding the current U.S. foreign policy actions, noting that there are few historical parallels. Stewart suggests that the Monroe Doctrine, which posits the Western Hemisphere as America's backyard where the U.S. protects its interests, provides the most relevant framework for interpreting these events.

"and so i think if you look at the broader uh if you look at the broader us policy it seems to be more about rolling back the inroads of us adversaries in in the hemisphere and then i guess the drugs too because that's still a priority for for him but i didn't i don't remember him running on i don't remember him running on cocaine though so it's it's a tricky yeah"

Phil Stewart posits that broader U.S. policy appears focused on countering the influence of adversaries like China and Russia in the hemisphere. Stewart also acknowledges that drug interdiction remains a priority, though he notes it was not a prominent campaign issue.