Projecting Future Kentucky Derby Potential Beyond Current Performance

Key Quotes

"I try to mix it up you want to project as much as you can because well it is nice to know who the good horses are now it's going to feel a lot better in may when we're especially for our purposes right we're going to talk future odds and maybe some international prices I'm sure you have those and and you really want to get on these horses now when you can get them at 20 to 1 30 to 1 40 50 to 1 instead of 6 to 1 come derby day that's all fine and dandy but it's going to feel really good if you can cash on it now so trying to project while also acknowledging the good horses right now and you know on my top 10 there's horses I I don't love but they they do deserve to be here and then there's others who I do love and I just have to hope that my evaluation of them at this point will be sustainable throughout the spring and into the first Saturday in may so it's a little bit of everything and I think that's that's how you can can hopefully land on a horse like sovereignty or or or nightquist or gun runner so forth"

Eric DeCoster explains his approach to creating a Kentucky Derby top 10 list. He emphasizes the importance of projecting future performance rather than just assessing current form. DeCoster aims to identify horses with the potential to succeed in the Derby, allowing for better betting opportunities at higher odds.

"I would say average maybe leaning towards below average I mean we've seen some horses throw these big gaudy figures or run very impressive races but I feel like I haven't seen enough horses really sustain it and going back to last year sovereignty journalism had we seen that no but you could just tell by the way they moved once they got out to two turns and a little more foundation under them that they were really going to be a force as long as they stayed healthy I only see a couple of those this year and even in that couple there's only one or two that I'm I'm really confident in saying yes I'd trust this horse come this spring so I wouldn't be surprised if we look back in may and after we've gone through all these horses today that the horse who wins the derby hasn't even raced yet that's that's really the vibe I'm getting so far"

Eric DeCoster evaluates the current two-year-old crop for the Kentucky Derby. He describes the group as average, possibly leaning towards below average, due to a lack of sustained impressive performances. DeCoster suggests that the eventual Derby winner might not have even raced yet, indicating a perceived lack of standout contenders at this early stage.

"You know I I went back and forth because he is still technically a a maiden but he's he's very impressive the numbers don't fully back him up quite yet I know he's going to get better he's a pletcher he's going to get better because they always do in that barn to be honest I could have easily switched him and my number 10 horse but I felt like I would have been knocking my my horse at number 10 that we'll get to a little too much if I didn't include him so that was definitely I'm glad you mentioned it because that was very much a back and forth and I eventually just just stuck with maybe the more proven commodity at this point"

Eric DeCoster discusses the decision to place Renegade as an "also eligible" rather than on his top 10 list. DeCoster acknowledges Renegade's impressive qualities despite not yet winning a race, but ultimately chose a more proven horse for the tenth spot. He indicates that the decision was difficult and involved considerable deliberation.

"I think he did get a bit of a setup I I thought that the three horses who outgunned into the lead really kind of took each other out essentially obviously the horse that stuck around soldier and diplomat ran a huge race also to finish third at the end of the day but he was still staggering home so because he was staggering home and because the other two up there dr kapor and cherokee nation both stopped as hard as they did around the turn I have to think he got a bit of a setup I will say I'm impressed that he gutted it out because the other horses that were coming like universe who was the biggest beneficiary in picking up those pieces a good horse wouldn't be able to outfinish that kind of kick and he was able to so there is some merit to that my my biggest concern truthfully is the gigantic regression from that 98 down to an 82 on the buyer scale I mean race dynamics aside that's a pretty harsh drop"

Eric DeCoster analyzes Further Ado's victory in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes. He suggests that Further Ado may have benefited from a tactical setup in the race, where the early leaders faltered. DeCoster expresses concern about the significant drop in Beyer Speed Figures from Further Ado's maiden win to his Kentucky Jockey Club victory.

"I think he'll he'll be able to stretch out just fine I think he's pretty immature in all truthfulness he's looked good in in in all three of his races of course and he's beaten pretty decent horses every single time but I did feel like there was just something missing from him mentally standpoint and almost felt like okay I know what my job is but I don't know how to do it really really well so his talent is just kind of carrying him there and I felt like in the juvenile you did see that a bit obviously where he was located on the track down on the inside and front no one in front of him that that played well to his ability to kind of re engage late in the game when it looked like he was backing off but I also think in that moment he kind of realized oh like this is a race I need to go get you now so I I I was really encouraged by that even though he was defeated and finished third at that short price and I I initially didn't really love the performance outside of that comeback he made late"

Eric DeCoster discusses Brant's third-place finish in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. DeCoster believes Brant is immature and is being carried by his talent, noting that he seemed to lack a full understanding of how to win the race. Despite the defeat, DeCoster was encouraged by Brant's late rally and ability to re-engage when challenged.

"I think that's that's 100 accurate and no I mean Brant's coming back for sure but like you said Ted Nafi was getting a little lost out there and I think that like you were saying goes back to the mental maturity and then that that gets really exciting when you think okay you put it all together what kind of horse are you really because he's been really good to this point four starts four wins he's beaten a bunch of horses we've talked about stretched out fine the first time they backed it up the second time there