Duke's Picks Teaches Strategic Horse Racing Handicapping Against Algorithms

Key Quotes

"Duke's Picks dot com is an interesting concept that my son and I developed Carson he he developed he made the website all the content is is mine but he made he designed it and it's for the it's for the more serious horse player but it's not necessarily for somebody that's not a beginner like you can be a beginner and be on Duke's Picks dot com um it's it's designed so that it helps you with your handicapping so it's not 100 picks there are picks obviously because that sells um but it is something that I'm teaching I'm teaching people better ways to make your handicapping easier on them so they can learn to do it themselves it's it's a teaching method"

Duke Matties explains that his website, Duke's Picks dot com, is designed to be a resource for horse players of all levels. He emphasizes that it is not solely a collection of picks, but rather a platform for teaching handicapping skills. Matties aims to empower users to learn and improve their own handicapping abilities.

"You know you're going to lose a lot in this game we don't we don't hit every race if we did you know we'd be billionaires you know we hit one out of you know five one out of 15 sometimes but that one is enough to make to make the other uh 14 go away you know and and I and I say to people you know you got to forget it's it's a game of forgetting you know when you lose move on because there's always another race you know there's there's always something out there for you to play"

Duke Matties highlights the inherent nature of horse racing as a game with frequent losses. He uses the analogy of hitting one race out of many to illustrate how a single win can offset multiple losses. Matties advises players to adopt a mindset of forgetting losses and moving on, as opportunities in racing are continuous.

"And to beat these computers uh systems nowadays you know you've got to be on top of your game and what better way for me to you know help the people is is this way you know like I just feel good about it it's it's a feel good thing I mean I have to pay for the site and I have to pay for my time but I think it's all worth it in the end"

Duke Matties expresses that in the current landscape of horse racing, beating sophisticated computer systems requires a high level of engagement and skill. He believes his website offers a way to help people achieve this, finding personal satisfaction in the process. Matties acknowledges the costs associated with running the site but feels the overall value makes it worthwhile.

"I mean if we all if we all disappear we don't have a game you know so we need us we need the guys you know that like to do this every day and the computers are trying to basically erase us and you've made a really good point I mean that's that's the idea the idea is I'm helping you I don't think my odds have changed even slightly since I've started Duke's Picks dot com on horses at sometimes I think they've gone the other way"

Duke Matties argues that the continued existence of horse racing depends on human participants who actively engage with the sport. He feels that computer systems are attempting to marginalize these individuals. Matties states that his intention with Duke's Picks dot com is to support these players, and he does not believe his own betting advantage has been diminished by the platform.

"I think it's a very unique course I mean it goes right then it goes left it goes down you know it comes across the dirt I think it's something that if you've never done it before I think it's probably very difficult for a horse because we don't we just usually run you know around in a circle and this is completely different"

Duke Matties describes the downhill turf course at Santa Anita as highly unusual. He notes its unique configuration, involving right turns, left turns, and a downhill slope, which differs significantly from standard circular tracks. Matties suggests that this complexity would likely present a considerable challenge for a horse encountering it for the first time.

"I analyze what their tendencies are like I know Barrios likes to go either back and in or he goes forward and in you know but then there's guys that like to just you know just like sit sit sit sit and make one wide move you know there's always these guys they always have the their favorite moves like a Rosario likes he either goes really forward or really back he's never in between so if he's on a horse that's got medium speed I'm always wondering well what's he gonna do with this one because he's either gotta go to the lead or he's gotta go back because that's what he that's what he likes taking him out of his element one way or the other potentially"

Duke Matties explains that he analyzes jockeys' tendencies to inform his handicapping. He provides examples of specific riders like Barrios and Rosario, detailing their preferred racing styles. Matties suggests that understanding these patterns can help predict how a jockey might handle a horse with medium speed, potentially revealing their strategic choices.