NBA Rule Changes Address Tanking and Injury Transparency

Hollinger & Duncan NBA Show - NBA Basketball Podcast · December 29, 2025 · Listen to Original Episode →

Original Title:

TL;DR

League proposals to curb tanking, such as limiting lottery pick protections to the top four, aim to prevent egregious draft manipulation, but may marginally complicate trade negotiations by reducing haggling flexibility.
The proposed March 1st deadline freeze for lottery standings is an incremental improvement over the current system, reducing the duration of blatant tanking from months to weeks.
New injury reporting rules requiring submissions between 11 AM and 1 PM local time aim to prevent gamblers from acting on information before public release, a positive step after a decade of discussion.
Jonathan Kuminga's trade value is diminished by his team option and recent performance, making it difficult for Golden State to recoup significant assets, potentially leading to a salary-matching role.
Draymond Green's offensive inefficiency and turnover proneness, coupled with reduced athleticism, make him a difficult fit in modern offenses, potentially impacting his untouchable status.
Trey Murphy III's value to teams like Golden State is high due to his shooting and contract, but New Orleans would likely demand a package of three first-round picks, which is too costly for Golden State.
Benedict Mathurin's restricted free agency status and Indiana's salary cap situation suggest a trade is probable, potentially yielding only second-round picks for a player unlikely to be retained.

Deep Dive

The NBA is actively exploring rule changes to curb egregious tanking and improve injury reporting transparency, though the proposed solutions face significant practical challenges and potential unintended consequences. While these measures are intended to restore integrity to the league's competitive balance and gambling landscape, their ultimate effectiveness hinges on nuanced implementation and a willingness to adapt based on real-world outcomes, as the league grapples with ingrained incentives for strategic losing and opaque player availability.

The proposed anti-tanking measures highlight a fundamental tension between rewarding future potential and maintaining present competitive integrity. The idea of penalizing teams for consecutive top-four lottery finishes is problematic because it assumes a successful rebuild, ignoring cases where a top pick might not pan out or where a team's underlying issues persist. Furthermore, this rule could inadvertently incentivize other teams to tank even harder to avoid being caught in a similar situation. A more direct approach, such as capping pick protections at the top four or fourteen, is identified as a more effective, albeit imperfect, solution to prevent the most blatant forms of tanking, such as intentionally losing games to retain a protected pick. This restriction would simplify trade negotiations by removing complex protection clauses and deter teams from deliberately manipulating standings. The injury reporting changes, requiring initial reports between specific times and frequent updates, aim to combat gambling-related manipulation by making player availability information more timely and less susceptible to exploitation. However, the underlying issue of teams historically misrepresenting injury status suggests that a more robust league oversight, potentially involving direct league personnel verification, might be necessary for true transparency.

The analysis of trade candidates reveals that team needs, contract situations, and draft capital are the primary drivers of market value. Jonathan Kuminga's trade value is diminished by Golden State's potential regret over his contract and the Warriors' evolving team needs, making him more likely to be used as salary ballast than a primary trade asset. Draymond Green's recent on-court behavior and declining offensive efficiency, coupled with his high salary, make him a complex trade piece. While his defensive impact remains, his turnover-prone offensive style and reduced minutes complicate his value, especially for teams already near the second apron. Trey Murphy III is seen as a high-value target for teams like Golden State, but his acquisition cost would likely demand a significant package of multiple first-round picks and potentially Kuminga, a price point that may be too steep for the Warriors. Zion Williamson is also a trade candidate, but his injury history and large contract present significant risks, making him less attractive unless paired with assurances regarding his health and availability. Domantas Sabonis's trade value is hampered by his contract and a recent knee injury, making him a less appealing target despite his established production. Zach LaVine's substantial contract and perceived negative equity make him a difficult asset to move, with teams hesitant to absorb his salary and player option. DeMar DeRozan, while defensively challenged, is viewed as a potentially useful sixth man for teams needing shot creation, but his contract and defensive limitations restrict his market. James Harden's ball-dominant style and significant contract make him a challenging trade piece, with few ideal landing spots that wouldn't disrupt their existing offensive structure. Ivica Zubac is identified as a potentially valuable trade chip for the Clippers, capable of fetching multiple first-round picks due to his digestible contract and starting center capabilities, though his current injury and age temper his immediate appeal. Bennedict Mathurin is considered a potential trade candidate for the Pacers, who may opt to gain value for him before he becomes a restricted free agent, especially if they prioritize using their salary cap for a center. His future contract demands and the Pacers' financial constraints suggest a trade could be mutually beneficial, though his value is debated.

Action Items

Audit tanking prevention proposals: Evaluate the effectiveness of limiting consecutive top-four lottery picks and restricting pick protections to the top four or 14+.
Implement injury reporting timeline: Enforce submission of injury reports between 11 AM and 1 PM local time on non-back-to-back days, with 15-minute updates.
Analyze player trade value: For 3-5 key trade candidates (e.g., Kuminga, Mathurin), assess their current market value against their contract and potential future performance.
Evaluate team roster construction: For teams with multiple rotational two-guards (e.g., Golden State), analyze the cost-benefit of roster redundancy versus acquiring needed positions.

Key Quotes

"the league might make some changes to tanking this off season what do you think of the three things that they are proposing to potentially do okay uh i would say not allowing a team in the top four multiple consecutive years is kind of a tangent to me um usually if you got in the top four in one year you don't need to tank quite as badly the next year anyway"

The author, John, expresses skepticism about a proposed league rule to prevent teams from receiving top-four draft picks in consecutive years. John argues that teams in the top four typically do not need to tank as aggressively the following year, suggesting the rule might be misdirected or unnecessary. He also points out potential unintended consequences for teams that acquire picks through trades.

"locking in lottery positions after march 1st is an idea that's been floated around in different ways or if you count wins after march 1st instead of losses or something or after the trade deadline or whatever cut off you use the risk is that you would incentivize even more tanking ahead of that date"

The speaker discusses a proposal to fix lottery positions after a specific date, like March 1st, and identifies a significant risk. This approach, they explain, could paradoxically encourage even more extreme tanking before that cutoff date as teams try to secure the best possible draft position.

"limiting pick protections to either the top four or 14 or higher like you know lotto protected or top four protected that is the absolute number one low hangingest piece of fruit that the league has to prevent the most egregious form of tanking that we have seen over the last several years"

The speaker identifies a straightforward and impactful solution to curb severe tanking: limiting draft pick protections. They argue that capping protections at either the top four picks or the 14th pick (lottery protected) would directly address the most blatant instances of teams deliberately losing games for draft advantage.

"the whole idea is that usually decisions are made or often decisions are made after a morning shoot around on a on a non back to back day and so that that information can't be floating around all day for gamblers to potentially act on before it's publicly released"

This quote explains the rationale behind a new league rule for injury reporting. The speaker clarifies that the intention is to prevent sensitive player availability information from being released too early on non-back-to-back game days, thereby mitigating the ability of gamblers to exploit this information before it becomes public.

"he he hasn't been playing recently so there are two separate jonathan kuminga angles one is is he a vector to a mega trade for the golden state warriors which gets gets into the stuff we talked about last episode with janis and whatnot but there's the other means where a team is actually trading for jonathan kuminga and the warriors are just making a one off trade of jonathan kuminga for something that they value more"

The speaker outlines two distinct trade scenarios involving Jonathan Kuminga. One possibility is his inclusion in a large-scale trade for a star player, while the other involves a more straightforward, single-player transaction where the Golden State Warriors trade Kuminga for assets they deem more valuable.

"i think trey murphy's trey murphy's trade value is going to be really high if new orleans if new orleans truly tries to tries to get something for him i think they get three firsts in their sleep and possibly more than that"

The speaker expresses a strong belief in the high trade value of Trey Murphy III. They assert that if the New Orleans Pelicans actively pursue a trade for him, they could easily acquire three first-round draft picks, and potentially even more assets, due to his perceived worth.

Resources

External Resources

Books

"The Trade Candidates of the 2026 Deadline" by Hollinger & Duncan NBA Show - Mentioned as the title of the podcast episode.

Articles & Papers

"Hollinger & Duncan NBA Show - NBA Basketball Podcast" (Podcast) - Mentioned as the name of the podcast.

People

John Hollinger - Discussed for his thoughts on league proposals and trade markets.
John Duncan - Co-host of the podcast.
Jonathan Kuminga - Discussed as a trade candidate for the Golden State Warriors.
Trey Murphy III - Discussed as a potential trade target for Golden State and his value to other teams.
Herb Jones - Mentioned as a trade candidate for the Pelicans.
Zion Williamson - Mentioned as a trade candidate for the Pelicans.
Jerami Grant - Discussed as a trade candidate, with consideration of his value and contract.
Domantas Sabonis - Discussed as a trade candidate for the Kings, with consideration of his contract and injury.
Zach LaVine - Discussed as a trade candidate, with consideration of his contract and fit with other teams.
DeMar DeRozan - Discussed as a trade candidate, with consideration of his contract and fit with other teams.
Kawhi Leonard - Mentioned as a player the Clippers might consider trading for a "godfather offer."
James Harden - Discussed as a potential trade candidate for the Clippers, with consideration of his contract and fit with other teams.
Ivica Zubac - Discussed as a trade candidate for the Clippers, with consideration of his contract and value to other teams.
Bennedict Mathurin - Discussed as a trade candidate for the Pacers, with consideration of his contract and potential restricted free agency.
Draymond Green - Discussed in relation to his on-court performance and potential trade value.
Steve Kerr - Mentioned in relation to Draymond Green's recent on-court incident.
Steph Curry - Mentioned in relation to his chemistry with Draymond Green.
Jimmy Butler - Mentioned in relation to his fit with Draymond Green.
Buddy Hield - Mentioned in relation to a potential trade involving Jonathan Kuminga.
Moses Moody - Mentioned in relation to a potential trade involving Draymond Green and Jonathan Kuminga.
Paul George - Mentioned as a player who has been sat out by teams.
Tyrese Maxey - Mentioned as a player who has been sat out by teams.
Victor Wembanyama - Mentioned in relation to injury reporting.
Tom Brady - Mentioned as an example of a player whose injury status was frequently listed as questionable.
Luka Doncic - Mentioned as a player not called out by JJ Redick for lack of preparation.
LeBron James - Mentioned as a player not called out by JJ Redick for lack of preparation.
Austin Reaves - Mentioned as a player not called out by JJ Redick for lack of preparation.
Anthony Davis - Mentioned as a trade candidate for the Mavericks and in relation to his injury.
Michael Bridges - Mentioned as a player whose defensive capabilities are compared to Trey Murphy III.
Jaren Jackson Jr. - Mentioned as a player whose contract is considered.
Jalen Brunson - Mentioned as a player on the Knicks.
Nikola Vucevic - Mentioned as a potential trade piece in a mega-trade with the Bulls and Kings.
Caleb Martin - Mentioned as a potential trade piece for Dallas.
Jaden Hardy - Mentioned as a potential trade piece for Dallas.
Drew Holiday - Mentioned as a player who may return for Portland.
Robert Williams - Mentioned as a potential trade target for Portland.
Hachimura - Mentioned as a potential trade piece for the Lakers.
JJ Redick - Mentioned in relation to his commentary on player preparation.
Aton - Mentioned in relation to JJ Redick's commentary on defense.
Keegan Murray - Mentioned as a player who may not be available for trade from the Kings.
LaMelo Ball - Mentioned as a potential trade target for Sacramento.
De'Aaron Fox - Mentioned as a player on the Kings.
Kevin Huerter - Mentioned as a player on the Kings.
Harrison Barnes - Mentioned as a player on the Kings.
Chris Paul - Mentioned in relation to his contract and potential trade.
Brook Lopez - Mentioned as a potential trade candidate for the Clippers.
Nic Batum - Mentioned as a potential trade candidate for the Clippers.
Bradley Beal - Mentioned as a player the Clippers might try to dump for salary reasons.
Giannis Antetokounmpo - Mentioned in relation to potential trades involving James Harden and the Bucks.
Kuzma - Mentioned as matching salary for the Bucks in a potential trade.
Bobby Portis - Mentioned as matching salary for the Bucks in a potential trade.
Kyrie Irving - Mentioned in relation to the Mavericks' future roster.
RJ Barrett - Discussed as a trade candidate for Toronto, primarily as matching salary.
Lauri Markkanen - Mentioned as a player to be discussed in future episodes.
Daniel Gafford - Mentioned as a potential trade target for the Pacers.
Walker Kessler - Mentioned as a potential trade target for the Pacers.
Tobias Harris - Mentioned as a player on the 76ers.
Jalen Duren - Mentioned as a player on the Pistons.
Ausar Thompson - Mentioned as a player on the Pistons.
Jalen Suggs - Mentioned as a player on the Magic.
Paolo Banchero - Mentioned as a player on the Magic.
Chet Holmgren - Mentioned as a player on the Thunder.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander - Mentioned as a player on the Thunder.
Jalen Williams - Mentioned as a player on the Thunder.
Brandon Miller - Mentioned as a player on the Hornets.
Terry Rozier - Mentioned as a player on the Heat.
Bam Adebayo - Mentioned as a player on the Heat.
Jrue Holiday - Mentioned as a player who was traded by the Pelicans.
Zion Williamson - Mentioned as a player for the Pelicans.
Herb Jones - Mentioned as a player for the Pelicans.
Trey Murphy III - Mentioned as a player for the Pelicans.
Devonte' Graham - Mentioned as a player for the Pelicans.
Jose Alvarado - Mentioned as a trade candidate for the Pelicans.
CJ McCollum - Mentioned as a player for the Pelicans.
Brandon Ingram - Mentioned as a player for the Pelicans.
Pascal Siakam - Mentioned as a player for the Pacers.
Myles Turner - Mentioned as a player for the Pacers.
Tyrese Haliburton - Mentioned as a player for the Pacers.
Aaron Nesmith - Mentioned as a player for the Pacers.
Obi Toppin - Mentioned as a player for the Pacers.
Jalen Smith - Mentioned as a player for the Pacers.
Bruce Brown - Mentioned as a player for the Pacers.
Jordan Nwora - Mentioned as a player for the Pacers.
Isaiah Jackson - Mentioned as a player for the Pacers.
Kendrick Nunn - Mentioned as a player for the Pacers.
George Hill - Mentioned as a player for the Pacers.
Buddy Hield - Mentioned as a player for the Pacers.
Jalen Duren - Mentioned as a player for the Pistons.
Ausar Thompson - Mentioned as a player for the Pistons.
Cade Cunningham - Mentioned as a player for the Pistons.
Killian Hayes - Mentioned as a player for the Pistons.
Marvin Bagley III - Mentioned as a player for the Pistons.
Isaiah Stewart - Mentioned as a player for the Pistons.
Alec Burks - Mentioned as a player for the Pistons.
Bojan Bogdanovic - Mentioned as a player for the Pistons.
Kevin Porter Jr. - Mentioned as a player for the Rockets.
Alperen Sengun - Mentioned as a player for the Rockets.
Fred VanVleet - Mentioned as a player for the Rockets.
Jalen Green - Mentioned as a player for the Rockets.
Jabari Smith Jr. - Mentioned as a player for the Rockets.
Dillon Brooks - Mentioned as a player for the Rockets.
Amen Thompson - Mentioned as a player for the Rockets.
Cam Whitmore - Mentioned as a player for the Rockets.
Jalen Suggs - Mentioned as a player for the Magic.
Paolo Banchero - Mentioned as a player for the Magic.
Franz Wagner - Mentioned as a player for the Magic.
Wendell Carter Jr. - Mentioned as a player for the Magic.
Markelle Fultz - Mentioned as a player for the Magic.
Cole Anthony - Mentioned as a player for the Magic.
Goga Bitadze - Mentioned as a player for the Magic.
Joe Ingles - Mentioned as a player for the Magic.
Moritz Wagner - Mentioned as a player for the Magic.
Jalen Johnson - Mentioned as a player for the Hawks.
Trae Young - Mentioned as a player for the Hawks.
Dejounte Murray - Mentioned as a player for the Hawks.
Clint Capela - Mentioned as a player for the Hawks.
Onyeka Okongwu - Mentioned as a player for the Hawks.
Bogdan Bogdanovic - Mentioned as a player for the Hawks.
Saddiq Bey - Mentioned as a player for the Hawks.
AJ Griffin - Mentioned as a player for the Hawks.
Gabe Vincent - Mentioned as a player for the Lakers.
Jarred Vanderbilt - Mentioned as a player for the Lakers.
Rui Hachimura - Mentioned as a player for the Lakers.
D'Angelo Russell - Mentioned as a player for the Lakers.
Taurean Prince - Mentioned as a player for the Lakers.
Cam Reddish -