Leveraging Temporal Markers and Resets for Behavior Change

Key Quotes

"Why is January 1st the day that we burden with so much hope so much resolve? That's a fresh start. It's the big fresh start. But there are others too, it turns out."

Stephen Dubner highlights that January 1st is not the only time people experience a "fresh start" effect. He points out that other cyclical events like birthdays, the start of a new week, or even major life changes such as a new job or moving to a new community can also provide this psychological boost. This suggests that the motivation for change is not confined to a single calendar date.

"Katy Milkman and some colleagues have named this motivation the fresh start effect. She says that fresh starts can shift our psychology in at least two ways: The first, they feel like new beginnings, so they give us a sense that anything that preceded them that was the old me, this is the new me, and so we can wipe that slate clean. And the second shift, they make us step back and think big picture about our lives and our goals because they're sort of disruptive."

Katy Milkman explains that the "fresh start effect" operates on two psychological levels. First, it provides a sense of a clean slate, allowing individuals to distance themselves from past failures or habits. Second, these moments of transition prompt a broader reflection on life goals, encouraging a more strategic approach to personal development.

"So how successful are New Year's resolutions? A recent study by a University of Stockholm psychologist named Per Carlbring along with three co-authors found that 55 percent of these resolutions essentially worked."

Stephen Dubner introduces a study suggesting a relatively high success rate for New Year's resolutions. This statistic, from Per Carlbring's research, indicates that over half of individuals who make resolutions achieve them, which might seem encouraging for those seeking to make changes.

"So the study is correlational, it's also, you know, based on self-report. That is, the study wasn't a randomized or controlled experiment. Most every study that is done to see how many people achieve their New Year's resolutions is based on self-report. It's really hard to get objective data on this unless you're like, you know, stalking people in some incredibly bizarre way. But also Milkman's own experience tells her that a 55 percent success rate for New Year's resolutions is just incredibly high."

Katy Milkman expresses skepticism regarding the 55 percent success rate for New Year's resolutions reported in Per Carlbring's study. She points out that the study relies on self-reported data and is correlational, not experimental, making it difficult to ascertain objective success. Milkman suggests that this reported rate is unusually high compared to other research findings in the field.

"We found that the dates that really worked were birthdays and the beginning of spring, whereas the other dates we looked at actually, New Year's didn't have a big effect, which was surprising. We would have expected it to."

Katy Milkman shares findings from an experiment where highlighting specific dates influenced goal pursuit. She notes that birthdays and the first day of spring significantly increased people's likelihood of starting a goal, while surprisingly, New Year's Day did not show a similar effect. This suggests that not all "fresh start" moments are equally motivating.

"So I find that when a player's performance is weak, more precisely their batting average prior to the trade is low, a reset is helpful. Their performance after the trade is significantly better if they are traded across leagues than if they are traded within the same league. In other words, for players who had not been playing well, a trade with a batting average reset provided a fresh start that lifted their fortunes."

Hangchen Dai explains the findings from her baseball study regarding player trades and performance resets. She discovered that players who were performing poorly before a trade across leagues, which reset their statistics, showed significant improvement afterward. This indicates that for those struggling, a "reset" can indeed act as a beneficial fresh start.