Navigating FPL Blanks and Doubles Through Cup Competitions - Episode Hero Image

Navigating FPL Blanks and Doubles Through Cup Competitions

Fantasy Football Scout - FPL Tips · · Listen to Original Episode →
Original Title:

TL;DR

  • FA Cup results are crucial for predicting Blank Gameweek 34, as semi-finalists will have their league fixtures postponed, making it a prime candidate for a Free Hit chip.
  • Carabao Cup finalists will blank in Gameweek 31, with potential for earlier doubles for semi-finalists like Arsenal in Gameweek 26, impacting transfer strategies.
  • Wildcarding early, around Gameweek 24, can offer a strategic advantage by capitalizing on fixture swings and correcting team issues before the majority of managers make similar moves.
  • Player form and fixture difficulty must be weighed against potential blank and double gameweeks, influencing decisions on holding or selling key assets like Foden or Saka.
  • The timing of wildcard usage is a critical decision, balancing the benefit of early team correction against the potential for more information on blanks and doubles later in the season.
  • Assessing player minutes and potential rotation, especially for Manchester City and Chelsea assets, is essential for avoiding transfer pitfalls and maximizing points.
  • Transfer decisions should consider long-term strategy, such as preparing for Gameweek 24 fixture swings or accumulating transfers for later wildcard plays.

Deep Dive

The core arguments of this discussion revolve around navigating the complexities of Fantasy Premier League (FPL) team management amidst cup competitions, potential fixture changes, and player form fluctuations. The primary implication is that proactive planning for blank and double gameweeks, informed by FA Cup and Carabao Cup outcomes, is crucial for optimizing FPL team value, even if it requires making difficult transfer decisions or considering earlier-than-usual wildcard activations.

The FA Cup's progression directly impacts future blank gameweeks, specifically Gameweek 34, which will coincide with the semi-finals. This creates a significant strategic challenge for FPL managers, as teams advancing in the cup will have their league fixtures postponed. The Carabao Cup final, occurring during Gameweek 31, further exacerbates this by potentially creating blanks for finalists. This necessitates managers to anticipate these blanks and plan their transfers and chip usage accordingly, often pointing towards Gameweek 34 being a prime candidate for a Free Hit chip. The implication here is that failing to account for these cup-related postponements can lead to significant point losses and a disadvantage relative to managers who have planned ahead.

The discussion highlights the intricate interplay between player availability, fixture congestion, and the timing of FPL assets' potential doubles. For instance, Manchester City's potential double gameweek is constrained by their Carabao Cup final involvement, delaying their ability to play a fixture before Gameweek 31. This directly informs transfer decisions, such as advising against selling players like Foden prematurely, as their value could increase with upcoming doubles. Conversely, Arsenal's potential double gameweek in Gameweek 26, involving a fixture against Wolves, presents an opportunity for managers to target their players. The downstream effect is that managers must continuously monitor cup competitions not just for immediate blank gameweek implications but also for opportunities to capitalize on future double gameweeks, thereby maximizing points potential.

The conversation also delves into the practical challenges of FPL team construction, emphasizing the need for second-order thinking when making transfers. For example, the decision to sell a player like Thiago for a cheaper option like Etobo, only for Thiago to then outperform, illustrates the risk of short-sighted moves. The implication is that FPL success hinges on understanding not just current form but also fixture difficulty, potential rotation, and the long-term value of assets, especially when planning around wildcard usage. The debate around wildcard timing--whether to activate early to correct a struggling team or wait for a more optimal period closer to major blank and double gameweeks--underscores the trade-offs involved. An early wildcard might offer a quicker route to a more competitive team, while a later one aligns better with established chip strategies but risks falling too far behind.

Finally, the discussion touches upon the broader implications of managerial changes and player valuation. The firing of Erik ten Hag, for instance, is discussed in the context of potential future stability for Manchester United, which could positively impact their FPL assets. Similarly, the analysis of players like Foden and Cunha reveals the volatility of FPL asset value, driven by factors such as rotation risk, penalty duties, and team form. The underlying implication is that FPL success requires a dynamic approach, constantly reassessing player potential and adapting strategies based on evolving team news, fixture swings, and the strategic advantages offered by cup competitions.

Action Items

  • Audit FA Cup implications: Identify 3-5 teams likely to blank in Gameweek 34 based on current progression.
  • Analyze Carabao Cup impact: Determine which teams will blank in Gameweek 31 and assess potential double gameweeks for Gameweek 26.
  • Track player form and fixture swings: Monitor 3-5 key players for consistent performance and favorable upcoming schedules to inform transfer decisions.
  • Evaluate wildcard timing: Compare the benefits of wild carding in Gameweek 24 versus Gameweek 31/32 to optimize team structure for upcoming blanks and doubles.
  • Measure player value retention: For 3-5 players with significant price drops or performance dips, calculate the cost of holding versus transferring out.

Related Episodes

Key Quotes

"No, it's not early. People need to start thinking about this stuff and most importantly, because I see a lot of people popping their wildcard. So we will talk about that a little bit on, you know, for example, I have very strong thoughts on why you shouldn't wildcard this week. But wait till 24 if your team is similar to people who are struggling, who have a lot of Liverpool, a lot of Man City, who are not delivering and want to get on other things."

Pras explains that it is not too early to consider future game weeks, specifically Gameweek 24, when discussing wildcard strategies. He advises against wild carding in the current week if a manager's team is underperforming or heavily reliant on struggling players like those from Liverpool and Manchester City.

"So as a result, as things stand, there's no confirmed fixture for Gameweek 34. Now, Gameweek 34 is way far, but the FA Cup is linked to Blank Gameweek 34 because that Blank Gameweek 34 coincides with the semi-final of the FA Cup. Whoever makes the semi-final, it happens on the same weekend as Gameweek 34. So you have to start thinking ahead in terms of, you know, that could be a potential Blank Gameweek."

Pras highlights the connection between the FA Cup semi-finals and Gameweek 34, which is expected to be a blank gameweek. He emphasizes the importance of planning ahead for this blank gameweek due to its proximity to other significant gameweeks like a double gameweek 33 and a double gameweek 36.

"So whoever makes the final will blank in Gameweek 31. So let's assume the favorites win, Man City win and Arsenal win. So in that case, Man City versus Crystal Palace will be a blank and Wolves versus Arsenal will be a blank."

Pras explains the implications of the Carabao Cup final on Gameweek 31. He states that teams reaching the final will blank in that gameweek, providing an example where a hypothetical Man City win and Arsenal win would lead to specific matches being postponed.

"So if you're thinking of selling Foden, if you're thinking of selling O'Riley, I mean, wait till the Wolves at home game in 23 and then you can probably sell them in 24 with the hope that you get them later, right? On the contrary, Arsenal, you should be thinking about holding and actually moving towards the three that you really, really want because there's a good chance that Arsenal beat Chelsea and there's a pretty good chance that that game goes into Gameweek 26. So they'll have a double Gameweek in involving Wolves, which is always nice."

Pras advises on player transfer strategies, suggesting to wait for specific fixtures before selling players like Foden and O'Riley. He contrasts this with Arsenal players, recommending holding onto them due to the likelihood of a double gameweek in Gameweek 26.

"So the Keane one was one, but I'll go one step further. Me and you both got, well, in fact, we'll come onto your team, but you had triple clean sheets from the Liverpool Arsenal game. What was going through my head, Pra, and I'm going to tell you right now, it's mixed feelings because obviously it's my team, Liverpool. I want them to win. I had, because I benched Etobo, you know where I'm going with this. I, the way the season's going, I saw Etobo coming on, scoring, and I don't have him starting. And The Wire power clean, all the clean sheets. That's, that's how the season's got me thinking that negatively."

The speaker expresses mixed feelings about their team's performance, particularly regarding players from Liverpool and the decision to bench Etobo. They highlight how the team's overall performance and specific player decisions are leading to negative thoughts about their Fantasy Premier League season.

"This is Phil Foden reverting to what Phil Foden does, man. Like this is why at Man City, the, because Haaland takes so much of goal share, it's very difficult to have good players who you can justify holding, especially at the prices that Foden is at. Yeah, I think with Foden, the plan should be clear. Hold him for the next two, hope for the best because he has a great record against Man United. And then it's Wolves at home, which I've said now a couple of times. And then after that, Bruno has finished playing Man City and Arsenal. You move him on to Bruno, similar price, right?"

The speaker explains that Phil Foden's current performance is typical for him at Manchester City, given Erling Haaland's significant goal contribution. They suggest a strategy of holding Foden for the next two fixtures, which are against Manchester United and Wolves, before considering a transfer to Bruno Fernandes.

Resources

External Resources

Articles & Papers

  • "GW22: FPL Early Thoughts with Pras + Mo" (Podcast) - Mentioned as the title of the episode and the context for the discussion.

People

  • Pras - Co-host of the podcast, providing FPL insights.
  • Mo - Co-host of the podcast, discussing FPL strategies.
  • Thiago - Player discussed in relation to FPL performance and transfer decisions.
  • Haaland - Player discussed in relation to FPL performance and captaincy choices.
  • Saka - Player discussed in relation to FPL performance and potential captaincy.
  • Foden - Player discussed in relation to FPL performance and fixture analysis.
  • O'riley - Player discussed in relation to FPL performance and potential rotation.
  • Keane - Player discussed in relation to FPL performance and suspension.
  • Cunha - Player discussed in relation to FPL performance and transfer decisions.
  • Gordon - Player discussed in relation to FPL performance and potential transfer.
  • Wilson - Player discussed in relation to FPL performance.
  • Etebo - Player discussed in relation to FPL performance and injury status.
  • Raya - Player discussed in relation to FPL performance.
  • Gabriel - Player discussed in relation to FPL performance.
  • Saibola - Player discussed in relation to FPL performance.
  • Palmer - Player discussed in relation to FPL performance and fitness.
  • Bruno Fernandes - Player discussed in relation to FPL performance and fitness.
  • Enzo - Player discussed in relation to FPL performance and potential transfer.
  • Rogers - Player discussed as a potential replacement for Cunha.
  • Watkins - Player discussed as a potential FPL option.
  • Bowen - Player mentioned as a potential FPL option.
  • DCL (Dominic Calvert-Lewin) - Player discussed as a potential FPL striker option.
  • Mane - Player discussed as a potential FPL striker option.
  • Krup - Player discussed as a potential FPL striker option.
  • Rice - Player discussed in relation to Arsenal's performance and FPL potential.
  • Tavernier - Player discussed as a potential FPL midfield option.
  • Madueke - Player discussed in relation to Arsenal's rotation and FPL potential.
  • Mahrez - Player mentioned in relation to Manchester City's squad.
  • Grealish - Player mentioned in relation to Manchester City's transfer spending.
  • Doku - Player discussed in relation to Manchester City's rotation.
  • Cherki - Player discussed in relation to Manchester City's rotation.
  • Semenyo - Player discussed in relation to Manchester City's transfer and rotation.
  • Rodon - Player discussed in relation to Burnley's squad.
  • Van Dijk - Player discussed in relation to Liverpool's defense and captaincy.
  • Chalobah - Player discussed as a potential defender transfer.
  • Brathwaite - Player mentioned in relation to Burnley's squad.
  • Ten Hag - Manager discussed in relation to Manchester United's performance.

Organizations & Institutions

  • Sports Social Podcast Network - Mentioned as the network to which the podcast belongs.
  • Premier League - The primary football league discussed.
  • FA Cup - Cup competition discussed in relation to fixture implications.
  • Carabao Cup - Cup competition discussed in relation to fixture implications.
  • Manchester United - Football club discussed in relation to performance and FPL.
  • Liverpool - Football club discussed in relation to performance and FPL.
  • Arsenal - Football club discussed in relation to performance and FPL.
  • Manchester City - Football club discussed in relation to performance and FPL.
  • Chelsea - Football club discussed in relation to performance and FPL.
  • Newcastle - Football club discussed in relation to performance and FPL.
  • Everton - Football club discussed in relation to performance and FPL.
  • Spurs (Tottenham Hotspur) - Football club discussed in relation to performance and FPL.
  • Bournemouth - Football club discussed in relation to performance and FPL.
  • Crystal Palace - Football club discussed in relation to performance and FPL.
  • Brighton - Football club discussed in relation to performance and FPL.
  • Burnley - Football club discussed in relation to performance and FPL.
  • Wolves - Football club discussed in relation to performance and FPL.
  • Fulham - Football club discussed in relation to performance and FPL.
  • Aston Villa - Football club discussed in relation to performance and FPL.
  • Nottingham Forest - Football club discussed in relation to performance and FPL.
  • Brentford - Football club discussed in relation to performance and FPL.
  • Newcatle United - Football club discussed in relation to performance and FPL.

Other Resources

  • FPL (Fantasy Premier League) - The game discussed throughout the podcast.
  • Wildcard - An FPL chip discussed in relation to strategy.
  • Free Hit - An FPL chip discussed in relation to strategy.
  • Bench Boost - An FPL chip discussed in relation to strategy.
  • Triple Captain - An FPL chip discussed in relation to strategy.
  • Blank Gameweek - A gameweek with fewer fixtures, discussed in relation to FPL strategy.
  • Double Gameweek - A gameweek with extra fixtures, discussed in relation to FPL strategy.
  • Fixture Swings - Changes in team fixture difficulty, discussed in relation to FPL strategy.
  • Set Pieces - Football situations discussed in relation to player performance.
  • Penalties - Football situations discussed in relation to player performance.
  • XG (Expected Goals) - A football metric discussed in relation to player performance.
  • African Cup of Nations (AFCON) - Tournament discussed in relation to player availability.
  • World Cup - Tournament mentioned in relation to player qualification.

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