Concentrated Investing, Judgment, and Craftsmanship Across Domains
TL;DR
- Concentrated, long-term investing in a few high-conviction ideas, rather than broad diversification, is XN's core strategy, reflecting a belief that few truly exceptional opportunities exist.
- Gaurav Kapadia's early experience as a landlord at age 10, collecting rent and negotiating payments, instilled a deep understanding of human dynamics crucial for his later investment judgment.
- XN intentionally avoids sectors like healthcare where deep regulatory and scientific expertise is required, focusing instead on areas like industrials and media where future trends are more predictable.
- The firm prioritizes hiring individuals with an "extra spark" beyond strong academic and financial credentials, seeking curiosity and ingenuity to foster a dynamic, entrepreneurial culture.
- Open-plan offices are favored at XN to encourage cross-pollination of ideas and facilitate the Socratic method, enabling deeper analysis in an increasingly interconnected business world.
- Kapadia believes art collecting, by exercising judgment and developing personal taste, cultivates crucial soft skills that enhance an investor's ability to develop differentiated conclusions.
- The magazine "Tote" celebrates craft and craftsmanship across diverse fields, aiming to highlight dedication and expertise as universally appreciated qualities beyond contemporary art appreciation.
Deep Dive
Gaurav Kapadia, a highly selective investor and operator, argues that true quality judgment transcends specific domains, enabling a rare ability to assess cities, talent, art, and investments with equal acuity. This synthesized perspective, honed through early landlord experience and a deliberate detour into management consulting, underpins his firm XN's philosophy of concentrated, long-term bets and a relentless pursuit of intellectual rigor and entrepreneurial energy.
Kapadia's insights reveal a nuanced understanding of urban development, highlighting how Queens has thrived on existing infrastructure and density rather than new mega-projects, and advocating for further housing construction as the primary solution for urban improvement. He critiques Robert Moses's legacy, favoring a balance between decisive leadership and due process to avoid infrastructure myopia. Kapadia identifies Mike Bloomberg as New York City's most underrated mayor for his impact on long-term initiatives, and suggests attracting better mayoral candidates requires reforming the primary election timing to encourage broader participation and reduce the influence of low turnout. He believes optimism is a scarce, critical quality for mayoral candidates, essential for inspiring constituents beyond basic governance.
In investing, Kapadia emphasizes the importance of developing personal judgment and taste, viewing art collecting as an intellectual exercise that cultivates these "soft skills" for professional life. XN's strategy focuses on sectors with relative transparency, such as industrials and media, where future trends can be forecast with high fidelity, and avoids areas like healthcare due to insufficient domain expertise. He distinguishes XN's approach from short-cycle or leverage-focused strategies, prioritizing asymmetric risk-reward profiles where downside is bounded and upside is significant, citing early investments in Figma and General Electric as examples of this philosophy. Kapadia stresses that mistakes are inevitable and focuses on refining processes to minimize passive errors, like missed opportunities, while maintaining an exceptionally high bar for new investments given the firm's limited portfolio size. He believes the best investment firms, like the best artists, possess entrepreneurial energy, a commitment to continuous improvement, and hire for a combination of foundational skills and a unique spark.
Kapadia draws a sociological distinction between New York and London finance, characterizing New York as more "swashbuckling" and entrepreneurial, while London is more "buttoned-up" and banker-like. He sees the UAE's finance sector rapidly evolving due to favorable tax regimes and a surge in regional wealth, attracting both capital and talent. Regarding AI, Kapadia anticipates it will revolutionize investment analysis by enabling faster, deeper data processing, freeing up human analysts to focus on judgment and taste. He also foresees significant improvements in the operational and compliance aspects of running investment firms through AI. He personally uses AI as a knowledge augmentor, creating custom curricula for personal learning.
Kapadia views art museums as vital public goods financed by private capital, emphasizing that fundraising should never override institutional mission. He advocates for museums to display more of their vast archives, both digitally and physically, and highlights the Whitney Museum's commitment to community access and artistic freedom as a key strength. He believes collecting art, for him specifically American artists of his generation, develops judgment and taste, and that while art is not an asset class, it provides intellectual context. He identifies artists like Kara Walker, Rashid Johnson, and Salman Toor as exceptional for their meticulous craftsmanship, intellectual complexity, and willingness to take risks and push boundaries. Kapadia predicts a winnowing of contemporary artists into a more defined canon, naming Dana Schutz, Rudolf Stingel, Christopher Wool, Rashid Johnson, and Salman Toor as likely candidates. He sees potential value in overlooked white male artists, contrasting this with art market trends towards more curated and higher-fidelity works. He believes that while some may dismiss contemporary art, its appreciation often evolves, as seen with some Silicon Valley founders. Kapadia's new magazine, Tote, celebrates craft and craftsmanship across various disciplines, aiming to provide a forum for dedication and skill, seeing it as a universally appreciated quality. Despite current aggregate pessimism, he remains optimistic about America's trajectory, believing innovation and a focus on solutions will drive positive change. His next learning pursuit involves understanding the practicalities of policy implementation in government to improve how things get done.
Action Items
- Audit investment firm culture: Implement quarterly anonymous surveys to measure founder energy and identify complacency risks across 3-5 teams.
- Design new hire evaluation rubric: Define criteria for assessing curiosity and ingenuity beyond traditional metrics (GPA, finance skills) for 10-15 candidates annually.
- Create runbook template: Define 5 required sections (setup, common failures, rollback, monitoring) to prevent knowledge silos for 3-5 core investment processes.
- Measure investment thesis clarity: For 5-10 recent investments, document the "obvious in retrospect" narrative and compare it to initial projections.
- Track AI integration impact: For 3-5 core investment analysis tasks, measure time savings and quality improvements post-AI tool implementation.
Key Quotes
"Gaurav Kapadia has deliberately avoided publicity throughout his career in investing, which makes this conversation a rare window into how he thinks. He now runs XN, a firm built around concentrated bets on a small number of companies with long holding periods. However, his education in judgment began much earlier, in a two-family house in Flushing that his parents converted into a four-family house. It was there where a young Gaurav served as de facto landlord, collecting rent and negotiating late payments at age 10."
This quote introduces Gaurav Kapadia as an investor who is typically private, making this interview a unique opportunity to understand his perspective. It highlights his investment firm, XN, and its strategy of concentrated, long-term bets. The quote also traces the origins of his judgment and business acumen to his childhood experiences as a landlord, demonstrating an early development of practical financial skills.
"We make you dictator of Flushing okay what would you change to make it even better I haven't been to flushing as much as I probably should since I left flushing but i i think one of the most important things you can do everywhere in New York City is build more housing and I think flushing in the periods where it grew very quickly they added a lot of housing stock via buildings and tearing down old single family homes that were kind of past their prime that has stalled as it has everywhere but I think increasing density would be the best thing to do so those old archie bunker style homes they should mostly be gone and we need to change the laws for that to happen."
Kapadia, when asked about improving Flushing, emphasizes the critical need for increased housing density. He suggests that older, less efficient single-family homes should be replaced with more housing stock. Kapadia believes that changing zoning laws to allow for greater density is the most effective way to enhance the area.
"Robert Moses hero or villain or both both and where do you side on the debate what margin do you want to push people on to like him more or like him less probably like him less why look on one hand it was a master class in wielding power of course power broker and so there's so much interesting things there but the lack of due process as we go 50 years later 100 years later is starting to show in where infrastructure is built ability to expand etcetera and so from that perspective i think a balance would have been more appropriate so more due process slightly more but if we want to make it easier to redo queens and we have more due process don't those two things work at odds against each other yeah they are at odds with one another i would say though having one person decide the taste for the whole city is also probably not the best use of time."
Kapadia views Robert Moses as both a hero and a villain, leaning towards disliking him more. He acknowledges Moses's mastery of wielding power but criticizes the lack of due process in his infrastructure projects, which he believes has long-term negative consequences. Kapadia suggests that a balance between strong leadership and due process would have been more appropriate, noting the inherent tension between these two approaches.
"So let's take a big step back right so New York is amazing to me in many ways because it is the only major city really that I know of in America that's not a company town everyone thinks it's their company town it's the the financial elites think it's their company town artists think it's their company town musicians think it's their company town broadway actors think it's their company town that I think is one of the great strengths of New York."
Kapadia argues that a key strength of New York City is its lack of being a singular "company town." He explains that unlike cities dominated by one industry or group, New York is perceived as belonging to various communities, including financial elites, artists, and musicians. This diverse ownership perception, according to Kapadia, contributes significantly to the city's unique character and success.
"I think one of the most important things you can do everywhere in New York City is build more housing and I think Flushing in the periods where it grew very quickly they added a lot of housing stock via buildings and tearing down old single family homes that were kind of past their prime that has stalled as it has everywhere but I think increasing density would be the best thing to do so those old archie bunker style homes they should mostly be gone and we need to change the laws for that to happen."
Kapadia reiterates his belief that increasing housing density is paramount for New York City's development, using Flushing as an example. He notes that past growth in Flushing was fueled by adding housing stock through new construction and replacing older homes. Kapadia advocates for changing laws to facilitate this density, suggesting that outdated single-family homes should be replaced.
"I think one of the really interesting use cases that I've seen is allowing any language visitor to have their own personalized in depth tour of a museum and so if you just think about because there's so many museum experiences where you just like go and walk in a circle and because it's like too crowded you can't engage you don't know as much about the art or the artist it's like the captions are too small all of this stuff right or you don't speak the language of the museum or you know whatever the case may be I think that's going to be like an amazing set of promising instruments which is you can use AR plus AI to understand the context of work much more broadly."
Kapadia highlights a promising application of AI in museums: personalized, multilingual tours for visitors. He points out common issues in museum experiences, such as crowding, lack of engagement, and language barriers. Kapadia suggests that augmented reality (AR) combined with AI can significantly enhance a visitor's understanding and appreciation of art by providing broader context.
Resources
External Resources
Books
- "The Dutchman" - Mentioned as a play directed by Rashid Johnson.
Articles & Papers
- "The New York Times article about his work" - Referenced for information on Soloman Tour.
- "A new yorker article about his work" - Referenced for information on Soloman Tour.
People
- Gaurav Kapadia - Guest, runs investment firm XN, collector of contemporary art, board member of various institutions.
- Tyler Cowen - Host of Conversations with Tyler, encouraged Gaurav Kapadia to embrace AI.
- Robert Moses - Discussed in relation to wielding power and due process in infrastructure building.
- Mike Bloomberg - Mentioned as the most underrated New York City mayor due to his high impact.
- Rishi Sunak - Met Gaurav Kapadia while both were analysts involved in the railroad industry.
- David Tepper - Mentioned as an example of a wealthy individual whose departure impacted a state's finances (New Jersey).
- David Chang - Chef, known for his concept of "good enough" plus "something special" in hiring.
- Julian Robertson - Mentioned as an example of an investor whose methods would be recognizable on Gaurav Kapadia's desktop.
- Kara Walker - Contemporary artist whose work is visually arresting, meticulously crafted, and intellectually complex.
- Rashid Johnson - Artist whose work is visually arresting, intellectually complex, and takes risks by pushing his practice into new areas.
- Salman Toor - Artist referenced as likely to end up in the artistic canon.
- Solomon Tour - Painter known for technical virtuosity, painting from memory, and creating contemporary works with precision.
- Mark Ronson - Artist whose work fits collection criteria but did not personally resonate with Gaurav Kapadia.
- Dana Schutz - Painter considered likely to end up in the artistic canon, pushing boundaries with intelligence and talent.
- Rudolf Stingel - Artist considered highly likely to be an extremely important artist.
- Christopher Wool - Artist considered highly likely to be an extremely important artist.
- Jeff Bezos - Mentioned as an example of an early tech founder who significantly increased participation in the art market.
Organizations & Institutions
- XN - Investment firm run by Gaurav Kapadia, focused on concentrated public markets investing and opportunistic private investing.
- Mercatus Center at George Mason University - Producer of Conversations with Tyler.
- The Mellon Foundation - Gaurav Kapadia serves on its board of trustees.
- The Whitney Museum of American Art - Gaurav Kapadia serves on its board of trustees.
- The Trust for Governors Island - Gaurav Kapadia serves on its board of trustees.
- The Institute for Constitutional Advocacy and Protection - Gaurav Kapadia serves on its board of trustees.
- Council on Foreign Relations - Gaurav Kapadia is a member.
- Boston Consulting Group (BCG) - Gaurav Kapadia worked there to learn about corporate environments and leadership.
- Goldman Sachs - Gaurav Kapadia received an offer from them but chose BCG.
- Blackstone - Gaurav Kapadia received an offer from them.
- TPG Axon - Previous firm where Gaurav Kapadia was a young partner.
- Sorbon - Firm started by Gaurav Kapadia with a partner.
- Citadel - Mentioned as an example of an investment firm with a short-cycle, short-term orientation.
- Sequoia Capital - Mentioned as having significant entrepreneurial energy.
- Thrive - Organization expected to embrace change and founder mode.
- JPMorgan Chase - Mentioned in relation to spending on AI.
- The MoMA Store - Example of a museum store bringing museum sensibilities to other places.
- V&A Museum - Created a museum site for its storage outside of London.
- The Rubell Collection - Museum in Miami, mentioned as having a great exhibit initially but currently not very good.
- The De La Cruz Collection - Miami collection that was accessible and exciting but has since closed.
Websites & Online Resources
- Conversations with Tyler (conversationswithtyler.com) - Website for full transcripts and helpful links.
- Mercatus.org - Website for the Mercatus Center.
- Tote.com - Website for the magazine celebrating craft and craftsmanship.
Other Resources
- AI (Artificial Intelligence) - Discussed for its potential impact on investing, analysis, and running investment organizations.
- Craft and Craftsmanship - Central theme of the magazine "Tote".
- Founder Energy/Founder Mode - Concept applied to investment organizations and innovation.
- The Socratic Method - Utilized in an open-plan office to create sparks of curiosity.
- Jainism - Mentioned in relation to the concept of multiple perspectives, possibly influencing Gaurav Kapadia's mother.
- TSA (Transportation Security Administration) - Mentioned in relation to the "weary traveler" series by Solomon Tour.
- The Artistic Canon - Discussed in terms of its evolution and potential future figures.