Private Equity: Accessing Broad Markets Requires Due Diligence
TL;DR
- Private equity offers access to 95% of the market opportunity beyond publicly traded companies, necessitating a private market allocation for diversified investors seeking broader market participation.
- The dispersion of returns in private equity is significantly greater than in public markets, meaning manager selection and due diligence are critical to avoid substantial losses.
- Private equity's illiquidity requires investors to tolerate longer durations, making it unsuitable for funds needed for short-term goals like down payments or tuition payments.
- Semi-liquid private equity funds offer a more familiar structure for individual investors by allowing redemptions, but this feature is a concession to investor demand rather than a solution to fundamental illiquidity.
- The potential for significant outperformance in private equity, driven by skilled managers identifying "unicorns," is tempered by high fees and the challenge of accessing top-tier funds.
- Consistent annual allocation to private equity across different "vintages" is crucial for diversification over time, mitigating the risk of investing capital during unfavorable market cycles.
- Private equity's value-add extends beyond capital, with investors actively contributing to corporate governance, strategic direction, and capital markets needs of portfolio companies.
Deep Dive
Private equity offers investors access to a significant portion of the market currently inaccessible through public exchanges, but this opportunity comes with inherent complexities around illiquidity, manager selection, and cost. While the appeal of potentially higher returns and diversification is strong, effectively integrating private equity requires a sophisticated understanding of its unique risk profile and a disciplined approach to portfolio construction.
The core argument for private equity's inclusion in a diversified portfolio stems from the sheer scale of private markets. In the U.S. and Europe, the vast majority of companies are privately held, representing 95% and 96% of market opportunities respectively, compared to a shrinking number of publicly traded entities. This necessitates a private market allocation for investors seeking broader market exposure. Furthermore, private equity is not merely passive capital; it involves active value-add, where investors contribute to operational improvements, strategic direction, and executive team building. This active involvement is a key differentiator from passive public market investing.
However, the integration of private equity presents significant second-order implications. The primary challenge is illiquidity. Unlike public securities, private equity investments are not readily tradable, requiring investors to tolerate extended lock-up periods. While semi-liquid or evergreen funds offer a structure more amenable to individual investors by providing redemption rights (typically capped at 5% of Net Asset Value per quarter), they do not eliminate the underlying illiquidity. This illiquidity means private equity should not be the starting point for a portfolio, but rather an addition after a well-diversified public market foundation is established.
A critical downstream effect of illiquidity and the nature of private markets is the heightened importance of manager selection and the significant dispersion of returns. The potential for outsized gains from "unicorns" or "lottery tickets" is a major allure, but it is counterbalanced by the risk of substantial losses. The dispersion between top-quartile and bottom-quartile private equity firms can be vast, with performance differences potentially dwarfing the illiquidity premium itself. This reality underscores that simply investing in the "average" private equity fund is insufficient; investors must conduct rigorous due diligence to identify skilled managers, a task complicated by the fact that top-performing firms often have loyal, established investor bases, creating access challenges.
The educational aspect of private equity is also a significant hurdle. The opaqueness of performance reporting requires investors to rely on established best practices for valuing private companies, often involving auditor oversight and investor advisory committees. This complexity, coupled with higher fees compared to public market index funds, means that net returns are paramount. Consequently, a consistent, disciplined approach is essential. This includes "vintage diversification," meaning building exposure over time rather than investing a lump sum, and a deep understanding of the underlying fundamentals of both the companies and the managers being invested in.
The ultimate takeaway is that private equity can enhance a diversified portfolio, but its successful integration hinges on a thoughtful, educated approach. Investors must prioritize building a robust public market portfolio first, understand and accept the illiquidity, dedicate resources to rigorous manager selection, and commit to consistent, long-term investing through strategies like vintage diversification. Without these considerations, the potential benefits of private equity can be easily overshadowed by its inherent risks and complexities.
Action Items
- Audit private equity manager selection: Define 3-5 objective criteria for evaluating skill and access, beyond past performance.
- Create private equity portfolio construction framework: Outline a phased approach for allocating capital over 3-5 years, focusing on vintage diversification.
- Measure private equity dispersion impact: For 3-5 chosen strategies, quantify the difference between top and bottom quartile returns to inform allocation decisions.
- Develop private equity liquidity risk assessment: Establish 3-5 key indicators to evaluate an investor's tolerance for illiquidity within their overall portfolio.
Key Quotes
"And and fortunately it is what it sounds like it's private equity but it's investing in companies that are privately held that can't be bought and sold on an exchange and typically those transactions are a one to one negotiation between the buyer and the seller."
Scott Voss explains that private equity involves investing in companies not traded on public exchanges, where transactions are direct negotiations. This highlights the fundamental difference between public and private market investments.
"if you're a diversified investor in the US markets or the European markets by number less than 5% of the companies that make up those markets are actually publicly traded so if you want to access the entire market opportunity the other 95% you need some type of private market allocation."
Joe Davis points out the vast number of private companies compared to publicly traded ones. This suggests that a private market allocation is necessary for investors seeking broad market exposure beyond public equities.
"I firmly believe it's fully aligned with the mission of Vanguard and I would hope other asset managers of lowering the relative cost of investing and to increase the investment opportunity set for investors to be ultimately successful and in many ways I I view um private markets the potential for private markets as an extension of Vanguard's long and and I would argue successful legacy in in low cost active management."
Joe Davis asserts that Vanguard's involvement in private markets aligns with its core mission of reducing investment costs and expanding opportunities. He views private markets as a continuation of Vanguard's established approach to low-cost active management.
"This should not be the first place you go in a diversified portfolio this should be an investor that already has a broadly thought well thought out diversified portfolio and this is an asset class that has a reason to be part of that portfolio and it might be 10 or 15% of of the program."
Scott Voss advises that private equity should not be an initial investment but rather an addition to an already diversified portfolio. He suggests a limited allocation, perhaps 10-15%, for investors with a well-established public market strategy.
"The dispersion meaning the higher highs and the lower lows is greatest at venture then growth and then leverage buyout and that's both opportunity and risk if you get it right you can materially out perform the benchmark but if you get it wrong you're going to pay the price which means you've really got to spend time getting it right."
Scott Voss describes the increasing dispersion of outcomes from venture capital to leveraged buyouts. He emphasizes that this wide range of potential results presents both significant opportunities for outperformance and substantial risks if investments are unsuccessful, underscoring the need for thorough due diligence.
"I think what we're talking about is is having a framing with risk meaning meaning dispersion and so I think dispersion within the investment universe is potentially more important than just volatility from quarter to quarter from these investments but that's typically how the industry has characterized public versus private."
Joe Davis argues that dispersion, rather than just quarterly volatility, is a more critical way to frame risk in private markets. He suggests that the broad range of potential outcomes within the investment universe is a key consideration that is often overlooked when comparing private and public markets.
Resources
External Resources
Books
- "The Intelligent Investor" by Benjamin Graham - Mentioned as a foundational text for understanding investing principles.
Articles & Papers
- "Academic research that shows persistence in performance among the top private equity firms and venture capital firms" - Referenced as evidence for the potential for skilled managers to maintain strong performance over time.
People
- Benjamin Graham - Author of "The Intelligent Investor."
- Jack Bogle - Referenced for his analogy of not being able to buy the entire "haystack" of companies.
Organizations & Institutions
- Vanguard - Host of the podcast series "Better Vantage" and involved in private equity.
- HarborVest - Private equity firm where Scott Voss is a Managing Director and Senior Market Strategist.
- WSJ (Wall Street Journal) - Co-host of the podcast series and provider of custom content.
- SMB Capital IQ - Source for data on public and private companies in the US and Europe.
Other Resources
- Private Equity - The primary subject of the discussion, defined as investing in privately held companies.
- Venture Capital - A strategy within private equity involving investment in companies at the formation stage.
- Growth Equity - A private equity strategy focused on scaling companies that have already achieved significant revenue.
- Leverage Buyout (LBO) - A private equity strategy involving a change of control of a company, often for monetization.
- Closed-end drawdown fund - A traditional private equity fund structure where the manager controls capital deployment.
- Evergreen semi-liquid funds - A newer fund structure offering more liquidity for individual investors.
- Volatility - A traditional measure of risk referring to the up and down movement of investment prices.
- Dispersion - A measure of risk referring to the spread between the highest and lowest returns within an investment universe.
- Vintage - Refers to the year a private equity fund begins investing, crucial for diversification over time.
- Illiquidity premium - The additional return expected for investing in assets that cannot be easily bought or sold.
- Active manager risk - The risk associated with relying on the skill of a specific investment manager.
- Cost averaging - An investment strategy of investing a consistent amount over time.
- Valuation policy - A set of guidelines used to determine the current market value of private company investments.
- Public comparables - Publicly traded companies used as benchmarks to value private companies.
- Advisory committee - A group of investors who advise a fund manager, often including a valuation committee.
- Non-correlated - Assets whose price movements are not closely related to each other, offering diversification benefits.