Preston Johnson's Lessons in Decision-Making, Human Connection, and Setbacks - Episode Hero Image

Preston Johnson's Lessons in Decision-Making, Human Connection, and Setbacks

Original Title:

TL;DR

  • Preston Johnson's experience managing Crawley Town FC highlighted that fundamental flaws in an organization's decision-making processes can lead to failure, even if past successes might suggest otherwise due to results bias.
  • The transition away from sports betting was driven by the inability to consistently beat the market due to significant changes like NIL and the transfer portal, raising concerns about future profitability.
  • Prioritizing human connection and emotional well-being became paramount for Preston after experiencing significant professional setbacks, underscoring its importance beyond financial success.
  • The failure of an NFT-based community model for a football club, compounded by external factors like market crashes, demonstrated the high-risk nature of innovative but unproven business strategies.
  • Preston's decision to leave Crawley Town was rooted in a commitment to evidence-based and probabilistic decision-making, refusing to compromise his core ethos even when faced with organizational misalignment.
  • The shift in Preston's career focus reflects a broader realization that personal growth and authenticity are more valuable than solely pursuing past achievements or financial gains.

Deep Dive

Preston Johnson, formerly a prominent sports bettor and recent chairman of Crawley Town FC, has stepped away from professional sports gambling due to an inability to consistently find edges and the significant rule changes in college football. His experience at Crawley Town, while financially unsuccessful due to market shifts and strategic disagreements, provided valuable lessons in decision-making, probabilistic thinking, and the critical importance of human connection during adversity.

The core of Johnson's reflection centers on the evolution of his priorities and the skills he wishes to nurture. He identifies decision-making under uncertainty and probabilistic reasoning as transferable skills from his betting and football management background, suggesting potential future roles in team management or analytics within sports. More profoundly, his time managing a professional football club highlighted the necessity of authentic human connection, particularly during challenging periods. This realization, coupled with a personal breakup, led him to value genuine relationships and emotional support systems, which he now seeks to integrate into his life beyond business. The financial losses incurred by investors in the Crawley Town venture, stemming from a flawed NFT-based international fan engagement model that failed to materialize amidst market downturns like the invasion of Ukraine, weigh heavily on him, underscoring the difficulty of navigating high-variance situations where external factors can derail even well-intentioned strategies.

Johnson's departure from Crawley Town was precipitated by a fundamental disagreement with the new ownership's strategic direction, which moved away from data-driven decision-making towards more subjective, logic-defying choices. This conflict created an untenable situation where Johnson felt he would have to compromise his core beliefs in evidence-based strategy, a principle he had honed over years in poker and sports betting. He views this as a critical juncture where staying would have meant abandoning his own identity and the discipline that had guided him for years, ultimately leading to his decision to leave to remain true to himself. This experience, while painful, reinforced the idea that learning from setbacks, even significant financial ones, is more valuable than consistent success without growth. The podcast also touches on broader themes of self-soothing, the impact of remote work on human connection, and speculative predictions about the housing market and the future of NIL in college sports.

Action Items

  • Audit decision-making processes: Identify 3-5 instances where data-driven logic was bypassed in favor of intuition or non-evidence-based strategy (ref: Crawley Town FC experience).
  • Create a probabilistic decision-making framework: Define 5 key principles for evaluating options based on evidence and statistical likelihood, applicable to personal and professional choices.
  • Develop a personal resilience plan: Outline 3-5 coping mechanisms for navigating significant setbacks, drawing from experiences with financial losses and professional demotions.
  • Track personal skill development: For 2-3 core skills (e.g., probabilistic thinking, human connection), define measurable outcomes and establish a 6-month review cadence.

Key Quotes

"I look by the time I was wrapping up betting and then took on the the Crawl Town challenge I I couldn't beat NFL anymore I couldn't beat baseball for years prior to that I was pretty good still in in basketball and college football it had always been my bread and butter but even I had a winning season my last college football year but the year prior I had my first ever losing season and then now with like I've just been away from it for four years pretty much and you have NIL and transfer portal stuff and I I don't I think I feel like I was playing catch up and playing from behind and I'm not 100 sure I'd even be a winning better if I did jump back into it so I think that's my biggest worry is in putting a ton of time and effort into that only to like just punt money away to other people so that's that's like the main thing."

Preston Johnson explains his reluctance to return to sports betting, citing the difficulty in beating the market and the significant changes in college sports like NIL and the transfer portal. Johnson expresses concern that he might not be a winning bettor if he were to re-enter the field after a four-year hiatus, indicating a pragmatic approach to his past profession.


"I think more pertinent to like your audience and what you guys are trying to do here with your podcast but just general decision making skills and thinking probabilistically and um sticking to a process and those types of skills or something that we learned really quickly are important and um I can tell a little bit more about why I left and stepped away in the summer a little later but those are skills that translate across as Jeff mentioned before on the pod like a ton of different industries and businesses and companies and so um obviously sport being the one that I've been attached to the last few years and then prior with betting you know working with a team again down the roads probably something in my um sights whether it's soccer football or or basketball or something."

Johnson highlights the transferable skills gained from his experience in sports betting and managing a football club, specifically decision-making and probabilistic thinking. He suggests these skills are valuable across various industries and that he might pursue opportunities in sports management or team operations in the future.


"I think my experience from like traveling back and forth and having all of the um pressure of being in charge of a professional team in England and um having people that were there versus those that weren't or were against you and like really developing connections with people that you know when you're at your lowest points and I know you you have Jeff actually called me we didn't get a chance to catch up but he called me and we spoke for a little while and we'll make we'll make it work next time you guys are in Vegas I used to go up there or next time you're down here in Newport Beach we'll make it happen but I think the human connection emotional kind of element to how um I've grown the last few years I think is something that I want to take with me even maybe outside of work or business but just like generally life stuff that I think is really important."

Johnson reflects on the importance of human connection and emotional growth developed during his time managing a professional football team. He emphasizes that these connections, particularly during difficult periods, are crucial and something he wishes to carry forward in his life, beyond professional endeavors.


"I think one thing I've learned and this is part of the reason I left in the summer and I'll give some context for a couple of minutes and then we can we can move on to some fun stuff but I did I learned I think to be true to myself and and I'll explain that so I was in charge CEO they call it like chairman over there for for three years and made like the final decisions on things for three seasons we had the good year two we got promoted on the lowest weekly budget in the league similarly tried to do the same in league one but this last summer it was evident that our ownership group didn't want to keep burning the cash to fund the club and so there was a transition that was going to be happening."

Johnson explains his decision to leave his role as chairman of a football club, citing a divergence in strategy with the ownership group regarding financial investment and decision-making processes. He learned the importance of staying true to his own principles, particularly concerning evidence-based and probabilistic decision-making, which conflicted with the club's new direction.


"I think the biggest kicker was is another reason why I keep blowing smoke up Jeff's ass but I appreciated him calling a week back just because I I feel bad that like you know you guys were part of the investor group we had this really out of the box idea similar to Wrexham where if you can bring in international fans to a local English football club that otherwise has another club five 10 miles away there's not that many fans but if you can internationalize it and actually create money because most of these clubs lose money every year then we have a chance if we spend efficiently to win and Wrexham they've had all of the money from the TV show and Ryan Reynolds and all that fame they've been promoted three straight years now they're in the Championship that was basically our thesis but around NFTs and can you build an NFT international community around a football club it didn't work we bought the club a week or two later Russia invaded Ukraine the markets died combined with we weren't good enough first year to be an interesting team."

Johnson elaborates on the ambitious but ultimately unsuccessful strategy for the football club, which involved internationalizing the fanbase through NFTs to create revenue. He attributes the failure to a combination of market collapse following Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the team's poor performance in its first year, which failed to generate interest.


"I think that there I think I think before the end of this coming year I don't know if it'll go into effect yet but I think we will see a big change in the NCAA and NIL and I don't know which I don't know like I think there will be some sort of new agreement or framework or something that changes because I think right I mean that's my bold prediction like it'll be is right right now we're kind of in this in between period kind of feels like and I think it'll either go full on embracing it or it'll kind of go the other direction."

Jeff Ma predicts a significant shift in the NCAA's Name, Image, and Likeness (NIL) policies within the coming year. Ma suggests that the current "in-between period" will likely resolve into either a full embrace of NIL or a move in the opposite direction, indicating a period of potential regulatory change.

Resources

External Resources

Books

  • "Crawl Town Challenge" - Mentioned as a personal endeavor Preston Johnson undertook.

Articles & Papers

  • "The Bet the Process Podcast" (Bet the Process Podcast) - Referenced as the platform where Preston Johnson was a guest.

People

  • Preston Johnson - Guest on the podcast, referred to as "Sports Cheetah."
  • Rufus - Co-host of the podcast.
  • Jeff - Co-host of the podcast.
  • Brandon Davies - Former BYU basketball player.
  • Jimmer Fredette - Former BYU basketball player.
  • Ryan Reynolds - Mentioned in relation to Wrexham's success.
  • Mike Vrabel - Mentioned as a successful head coach.
  • Josh Allen - Mentioned as a quarterback.
  • Jaden Daniels - Mentioned as a quarterback.
  • Caleb Williams - Mentioned as a quarterback.
  • CJ Stroud - Mentioned as a quarterback.
  • Tanner Hill - Mentioned as a quarterback.
  • Bill Belichick - Mentioned in relation to coaching.
  • Mike Tomlin - Mentioned as a head coach.
  • Josh Hader - Mentioned in relation to the Marlins.
  • Trevor Rogers - Mentioned in relation to the Marlins.
  • John Reader - Guest on a podcast.

Organizations & Institutions

  • BYU (Brigham Young University) - Mentioned in relation to their basketball team and historical tournament run.
  • Lakers - Mentioned as a basketball team.
  • Dallas - Mentioned in relation to Luka Doncic.
  • New England Patriots - Mentioned as a football team.
  • Celtics - Mentioned as a basketball team.
  • Red Sox - Mentioned as a baseball team.
  • Washington Commanders - Mentioned as a football team.
  • Tennessee Titans - Mentioned in relation to Mike Vrabel.
  • Pittsburgh Steelers - Mentioned in relation to Mike Tomlin.
  • Marlins - Mentioned as a baseball team.
  • NCAA - Mentioned in relation to Name, Image, and Likeness (NIL) changes.
  • Wrexham - Mentioned as a football club.
  • Crawley Town - Mentioned as a football club.
  • Russia - Mentioned in relation to the invasion of Ukraine.
  • Ukraine - Mentioned in relation to the invasion.
  • CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) - Mentioned in relation to event contracts on sporting events.
  • Calcsi - Mentioned as a prediction market platform.
  • Ohio State - Mentioned in relation to college football.
  • Miami - Mentioned in relation to college football.
  • Oregon - Mentioned in relation to college football.
  • Georgia - Mentioned in relation to college football.
  • Texas Tech - Mentioned in relation to college football.
  • Indiana - Mentioned in relation to college football.
  • Old Miss - Mentioned in relation to college football.
  • Alabama - Mentioned in relation to college football.
  • Texas A&M - Mentioned in relation to college football.

Websites & Online Resources

  • Novig.us - Mentioned as a sports prediction market.
  • Twitter - Mentioned as a platform where Preston Johnson posted.

Other Resources

  • Name, Image, and Likeness (NIL) - Mentioned as a factor changing college sports.
  • NFTs (Non-Fungible Tokens) - Mentioned in relation to building an international community around a football club.
  • AI (Artificial Intelligence) - Mentioned as a factor in job losses.
  • Housing Market Crash - Mentioned as a potential economic event.
  • Prediction Markets - Discussed as a tool for sports betting and decision-making.
  • Event Contracts on Sporting Events - Mentioned in relation to the CFTC and Calcsi.
  • College Football Playoffs - Mentioned in relation to picks and potential changes to the system.

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